AAOI · NASDAQ · STOCK
Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) Stock Analysis
$109.54
52W $18.50 – $233.67
63/100
$8.80B
-140.8
3.84
Is AAOI Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. (AAOI) Buy with a composite score of 63/100
, based on 6 analysts with 67% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +12.14 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -7.86 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Growth Analyst sees a compelling case — revenue growing 61.9% yoy -- genuine top-line momentum. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Revenue growing 61.9% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.27) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock — Risk
Bear Case
- ROE of only -5.6% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason — Value
- Bollinger bandwidth of 36.8% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
63/100
Agreement
67%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 17%
of 287 Technology peers
Value Analyst
neutral
52
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
− ROE of only -5.6% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason
Growth Analyst
bullish
85
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Revenue growing 61.9% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum
Technical Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
Risk Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate risk -- no single red flag, but nothing that clearly de-risks the position either
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.27) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
− Bollinger bandwidth of 36.8% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
60
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 64.0 to 62.9.
- Conviction changed from contested to moderate.
- Committee agreement increased notably from 50% to 67%.
- New bearish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: News Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- News Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 66->60 (-6).
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
48.8
Neutral
MACD Histogram
1.603
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$78.62
Resistance
$160.86
Bollinger %B
0.59
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$112.20
Below
EMA 21
$109.74
Below
EMA 50
$113.10
Below
EMA 200
$106.31
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
80
Growth
85
Profitability
6
Financial Health
100
Cash Flow
15
Valuation
P/E Ratio
-140.8×
P/B Ratio
5.36×
PEG Ratio
-2.77
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$233.67
52W Low
$18.50
Quality & Growth
ROE
-520.9%
ROA
-327.2%
Gross Margin
2891.6%
Operating Margin
-1131.0%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.16
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of -140.8 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 5.4x; PEG ratio of -2.8 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of -5.2%; Return on assets of -3.3%; Net margin of -9.6%; Gross margin of 28.9%; Current ratio of 2.78 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.16; Free cash flow per share is negative (-5.07); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 292.2%; EPS growth accelerating (-600.0% -> +185.7% QoQ); Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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