MSFT · NASDAQ · STOCK
Microsoft (MSFT) Stock Analysis
$535.20
52W $349.20 – $553.72
67/100
$3.97T
29.7
1.10
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is MSFT Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) Buy with a composite score of 67/100
, based on 6 analysts with 83% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +8.24 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -11.76 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Risk Analyst sees a compelling case — low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.24) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 33.2% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- EPS growing 31.6% YoY — Growth
- 5 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
Bear Case
- P/E of 29.3 is moderate-to-rich — Value
- Price-to-book of 6.3x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- RSI at 72 is in overbought territory — Technical
- Weekly RSI at 75 -- overbought on the larger timeframe too — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
67/100
Agreement
83%
Analysts
6
Conviction
High
Sector Rank
Top 1%
of 287 Technology peers
Value Analyst
neutral
54
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 33.2% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− P/E of 29.3 is moderate-to-rich
Growth Analyst
bullish
79
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ EPS growing 31.6% YoY
Technical Analyst
bullish
61
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
− RSI at 72 is in overbought territory
Risk Analyst
bullish
80
/ 100 · Low confidence
Risk profile is manageable -- leverage, volatility, and event exposure all look contained
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.24) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 67.7 to 66.8.
- Conviction changed from moderate to high.
- Committee agreement increased notably from 67% to 83%.
- New bearish signals: 3 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: News Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- News Analyst: stance neutral->bullish.
- Technical Analyst: score 69->61 (-8); +2 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
72.4
Overbought
MACD Histogram
1.510
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$506.00
Resistance
$553.72
Bollinger %B
0.97
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$522.59
Above
EMA 21
$512.56
Above
EMA 50
$491.01
Above
EMA 200
$445.05
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
47
Growth
86
Profitability
100
Financial Health
68
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
29.7×
P/B Ratio
8.99×
PEG Ratio
0.94
Dividend Yield
0.68%
52W High
$553.72
52W Low
$349.20
Quality & Growth
ROE
3023.3%
ROA
1763.6%
Gross Margin
6794.4%
Operating Margin
4678.1%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.29
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 29.7 (moderate relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 9.0x; PEG ratio of 0.9 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 30.2%; Return on assets of 17.6%; Net margin of 40.3%; Gross margin of 67.9%; Current ratio of 1.23 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.29; Free cash flow per share is positive (9.02); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 9.5%; 5 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (+3.1% -> +11.0% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 104.0%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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