MSFT · NASDAQ · STOCK
Microsoft (MSFT) Stock Analysis
$490.45
52W $349.20 – $553.72
66/100
$3.69T
27.6
1.11
Is MSFT Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) Buy with a composite score of 66/100
, based on 6 analysts with 67% agreement.
Last updated September 17, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +8.59 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -11.41 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The primary driver is low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.24) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock. The main limiting factor is p/e of 27.7 is moderate-to-rich. The committee is constructive but not yet at full conviction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 33.2% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- EPS growing 31.6% YoY — Growth
- 5 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- Trend and market structure agree -- coherent bullish picture — Technical
Bear Case
- P/E of 27.7 is moderate-to-rich — Value
- Price-to-book of 6.3x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of September 17, 2026
Overall Committee Score
66/100
Agreement
67%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 4%
of 287 Technology peers
Value Analyst
neutral
54
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 33.2% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− P/E of 27.7 is moderate-to-rich
Growth Analyst
bullish
79
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ EPS growing 31.6% YoY
Technical Analyst
bullish
61
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Risk Analyst
bullish
80
/ 100 · Low confidence
Risk profile is manageable -- leverage, volatility, and event exposure all look contained
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.24) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
60
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2514.55)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 66.4 to 66.4.
Comparing 2026-09-16 to 2026-09-17 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
50.5
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-3.157
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$492.37
Resistance
$531.03
Bollinger %B
0.54
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$498.05
Below
EMA 21
$492.20
Below
EMA 50
$467.15
Above
EMA 200
$431.90
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
50
Growth
86
Profitability
100
Financial Health
68
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
27.6×
P/B Ratio
8.35×
PEG Ratio
0.88
Dividend Yield
0.73%
52W High
$553.72
52W Low
$349.20
Quality & Growth
ROE
3023.3%
ROA
1763.6%
Gross Margin
6794.4%
Operating Margin
4678.1%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.29
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 27.6 (moderate relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 8.3x; PEG ratio of 0.9 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 30.2%; Return on assets of 17.6%; Net margin of 40.3%; Gross margin of 67.9%; Current ratio of 1.23 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.29; Free cash flow per share is positive (9.02); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 9.5%; 5 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (+3.1% -> +11.0% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 104.0%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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