MSFT · NASDAQ · STOCK
Microsoft (MSFT) Stock Analysis
$483.33
52W $349.20 – $553.72
61/100
$3.59T
26.8
1.10
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is MSFT Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) Buy with a composite score of 61/100
, based on 5 analysts with 60% agreement.
Last updated August 23, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +14.47 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -5.53 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Growth Analyst sees a compelling case — 5 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution. Risk Analyst remains cautious — bollinger bandwidth of 31.8% signals elevated volatility. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- 5 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
Bear Case
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- Bollinger bandwidth of 31.8% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of August 23, 2026
Overall Committee Score
61/100
Agreement
60%
Analysts
5
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 27%
of 287 Technology peers
Growth Analyst
bullish
82
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ 5 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution
Technical Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Bollinger bandwidth of 31.8% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 3069.37)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 62.5 to 60.5.
- Committee agreement increased notably from 50% to 60%.
- Bullish support removed: 3 signal(s) disappeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Risk Analyst.
- Analyst(s) abstained: Value Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Growth Analyst: score 79->82 (+4).
- Risk Analyst: stance neutral->bearish; score 58->35 (-22).
- Value Analyst abstained (was neutral at 54).
Comparing 2026-08-22 to 2026-08-23 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
55.8
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-3.599
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Sideways
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$470.88
Resistance
$483.74
Bollinger %B
0.57
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$484.36
Below
EMA 21
$468.24
Above
EMA 50
$438.59
Above
EMA 200
$420.25
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
51
Growth
86
Profitability
100
Financial Health
68
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
26.8×
P/B Ratio
8.12×
PEG Ratio
0.85
Dividend Yield
0.75%
52W High
$553.72
52W Low
$349.20
Quality & Growth
ROE
3023.3%
ROA
1763.6%
Gross Margin
6794.4%
Operating Margin
4678.1%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.29
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 26.8 (moderate relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 8.1x; PEG ratio of 0.9 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 30.2%; Return on assets of 17.6%; Net margin of 40.3%; Gross margin of 67.9%; Current ratio of 1.23 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.29; Free cash flow per share is positive (9.02); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 9.5%; 5 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (+3.1% -> +11.0% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 104.0%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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