ADP · NASDAQ · STOCK
Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Stock Analysis
$270.82
52W $188.16 – $288.00
58/100
$108.28B
24.7
0.84
Is ADP Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Watch with a composite score of 58/100
, based on 5 analysts with 80% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +2.50 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -17.50 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 70.2% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- 5 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 14.8x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
58/100
Agreement
80%
Analysts
5
Conviction
High
Sector Rank
Top 56%
of 287 Technology peers
Value Analyst
neutral
55
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 70.2% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− Price-to-book of 14.8x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
neutral
52
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ 5 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution
− Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level
Technical Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 57.1 to 57.5.
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
63.9
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.744
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$247.21
Resistance
$274.92
Bollinger %B
0.68
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$265.47
Above
EMA 21
$266.57
Above
EMA 50
$265.11
Above
EMA 200
$252.20
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
28
Growth
58
Profitability
85
Financial Health
41
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
24.7×
P/B Ratio
17.94×
PEG Ratio
2.57
Dividend Yield
2.51%
52W High
$288.00
52W Low
$188.16
Quality & Growth
ROE
7317.8%
ROA
698.4%
Gross Margin
4818.6%
Operating Margin
1858.2%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.87
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 24.7 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 17.9x; PEG ratio of 2.6 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 73.2%; Return on assets of 7.0%; Net margin of 20.1%; Gross margin of 48.2%; Current ratio of 0.17 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.87; Free cash flow per share is positive (12.47); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 0.7%; 5 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth decelerating (+29.0% -> -21.9% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 16.8%; Analyst estimates flat over recent quarters
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