ADP · NASDAQ · STOCK
Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Stock Analysis
$266.08
52W $188.16 – $310.08
61/100
$109.11B
24.9
0.82
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is ADP Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Buy with a composite score of 61/100
, based on 6 analysts with 67% agreement.
Last updated August 17, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +13.67 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -6.33 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
Positive signals support the current rating — vix regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking. The committee sees sufficient evidence to maintain the constructive view.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 70.2% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- 5 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- Trend and market structure agree -- coherent bullish picture — Technical
- VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking — Macro
- News sentiment is positive (+0.40 across 50 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 14.8x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- Weekly RSI at 78 -- overbought on the larger timeframe too — Technical
- Bollinger bandwidth of 16.7% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of August 17, 2026
Overall Committee Score
61/100
Agreement
67%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 43%
of 284 Technology peers
Value Analyst
neutral
55
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 70.2% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− Price-to-book of 14.8x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
neutral
52
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ 5 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution
− Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level
Technical Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Risk Analyst
neutral
52
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate risk -- no single red flag, but nothing that clearly de-risks the position either
− Bollinger bandwidth of 16.7% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
80
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking
News Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.40 across 50 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2963.04)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 61.3 to 61.3.
- New bearish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- News Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-08-16 to 2026-08-17 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
60.0
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.405
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Sideways
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$247.21
Resistance
$274.92
Bollinger %B
0.70
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$271.06
Below
EMA 21
$263.92
Above
EMA 50
$249.65
Above
EMA 200
$243.14
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
27
Growth
58
Profitability
85
Financial Health
41
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
24.9×
P/B Ratio
18.08×
PEG Ratio
2.59
Dividend Yield
2.43%
52W High
$310.08
52W Low
$188.16
Quality & Growth
ROE
7317.8%
ROA
698.4%
Gross Margin
4818.6%
Operating Margin
1858.2%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.87
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 24.9 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 18.1x; PEG ratio of 2.6 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 73.2%; Return on assets of 7.0%; Net margin of 20.1%; Gross margin of 48.2%; Current ratio of 0.17 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.87; Free cash flow per share is positive (12.47); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 0.7%; 5 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth decelerating (+29.0% -> -21.9% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 16.8%; Analyst estimates flat over recent quarters
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