AJG · NYSE · STOCK
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) Stock Analysis
$269.84
52W $190.75 – $313.55
53/100
$69.87B
44.6
0.50
Is AJG Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) Watch with a composite score of 53/100
, based on 5 analysts with 40% agreement.
Last updated August 25, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +6.83 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -13.17 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. News Analyst sees a compelling case — news sentiment is positive (+0.23 across 13 articles, 14d). Value Analyst remains cautious — p/e of 41.7 is expensive by classic value standards. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Revenue growing 26.3% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum — Growth
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Trend and market structure agree -- coherent bullish picture — Technical
- News sentiment is positive (+0.23 across 13 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- P/E of 41.7 is expensive by classic value standards — Value
- EPS declining -8.8% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- 2 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns — Growth
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- RSI at 70 is in overbought territory — Technical
- Weekly RSI at 76 -- overbought on the larger timeframe too — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of August 25, 2026
Overall Committee Score
53/100
Agreement
40%
Analysts
5
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 82%
of 211 Financial Services peers
Value Analyst
bearish
38
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Multiples don't clear a genuine value bar here, or cheapness looks justified by weak fundamentals
− P/E of 41.7 is expensive by classic value standards
Growth Analyst
bearish
40
/ 100 · High confidence
Growth story is weak, decelerating, or inconsistent
+ Revenue growing 26.3% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum
− EPS declining -8.8% YoY despite any revenue growth
Technical Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
− RSI at 70 is in overbought territory
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.23 across 13 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 3063.01)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 53.2 to 53.2.
Comparing 2026-08-24 to 2026-08-25 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
78.0
Overbought
MACD Histogram
1.091
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Sideways
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$239.74
Resistance
$300.75
Bollinger %B
1.08
Above Upper Band
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$258.98
Above
EMA 21
$254.57
Above
EMA 50
$245.43
Above
EMA 200
$242.53
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
59
Growth
45
Profitability
51
Financial Health
61
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
44.6×
P/B Ratio
2.94×
PEG Ratio
-4.57
Dividend Yield
0.99%
52W High
$313.55
52W Low
$190.75
Quality & Growth
ROE
640.6%
ROA
211.4%
Gross Margin
7455.0%
Operating Margin
1703.4%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.09
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 44.6 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 2.9x; PEG ratio of -4.6 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 6.4%; Return on assets of 2.1%; Net margin of 10.0%; Gross margin of 74.6%; Current ratio of 1.05 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.09; Free cash flow per share is positive (8.91); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 0.0%; 2 consecutive earnings misses; EPS growth decelerating (+87.8% -> -36.5% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 21.9%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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