AJG · NYSE · STOCK
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) Stock Analysis
$232.66
52W $190.75 – $304.57
52/100
$59.78B
38.1
0.55
Is AJG Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) Watch with a composite score of 52/100
, based on 5 analysts with 60% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +8.25 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -11.75 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Revenue growing 26.3% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
Bear Case
- P/E of 38.4 is moderate-to-rich — Value
- EPS declining -8.8% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- 2 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns — Growth
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- Price structure (HH_HL) contradicts the downtrend -- mixed signals — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
52/100
Agreement
60%
Analysts
5
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 91%
of 211 Financial Services peers
Value Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
− P/E of 38.4 is moderate-to-rich
Growth Analyst
bearish
40
/ 100 · High confidence
Growth story is weak, decelerating, or inconsistent
+ Revenue growing 26.3% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum
− EPS declining -8.8% YoY despite any revenue growth
Technical Analyst
neutral
49
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 51.8 to 51.8.
- New bearish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
50.8
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.829
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Sideways
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$230.23
Resistance
$253.75
Bollinger %B
0.46
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$230.89
Above
EMA 21
$235.06
Below
EMA 50
$240.54
Below
EMA 200
$242.44
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
64
Growth
45
Profitability
51
Financial Health
61
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
38.1×
P/B Ratio
2.52×
PEG Ratio
-3.91
Dividend Yield
1.18%
52W High
$304.57
52W Low
$190.75
Quality & Growth
ROE
640.6%
ROA
211.4%
Gross Margin
7455.0%
Operating Margin
1703.4%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.09
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 38.1 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 2.5x; PEG ratio of -3.9 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 6.4%; Return on assets of 2.1%; Net margin of 10.0%; Gross margin of 74.6%; Current ratio of 1.05 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.09; Free cash flow per share is positive (8.91); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 0.0%; 2 consecutive earnings misses; EPS growth decelerating (+87.8% -> -36.5% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 21.9%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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