AM · NYSE · STOCK
Antero Midstream (AM) Stock Analysis
$21.04
52W $16.96 – $23.84
45/100
$9.99B
25.0
0.63
Is AM Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Antero Midstream (AM) Watch with a composite score of 45/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated September 22, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +14.59 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -5.41 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case. Risk Analyst remains cautious — high leverage (debt-to-equity 1.63) amplifies downside in a stress scenario. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 20.2% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Dividend yield of 6.8% pays you to wait — Value
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
Bear Case
- P/E of 25.1 is moderate-to-rich — Value
- Price-to-book of 4.3x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 1.63 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- EPS declining -11.4% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- 2 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns — Growth
- RSI at 25 is in oversold territory (could mean either capitulation or a bounce setup) — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of September 22, 2026
Overall Committee Score
45/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 100%
of 93 Energy peers
Value Analyst
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 20.2% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− P/E of 25.1 is moderate-to-rich
Growth Analyst
neutral
41
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
− EPS declining -11.4% YoY despite any revenue growth
Technical Analyst
bearish
38
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is deteriorating -- trend and/or momentum are working against this name
− RSI at 25 is in oversold territory (could mean either capitulation or a bounce setup)
Risk Analyst
bearish
30
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 1.63) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
53
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2517.06)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 45.4 to 45.4.
- New bearish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-09-21 to 2026-09-22 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
22.2
Oversold
MACD Histogram
-0.165
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$20.39
Resistance
$22.55
Bollinger %B
0.07
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$21.53
Below
EMA 21
$21.88
Below
EMA 50
$22.03
Below
EMA 200
$21.14
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
68
Growth
44
Profitability
93
Financial Health
18
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
25.0×
P/B Ratio
5.14×
PEG Ratio
-2.16
Dividend Yield
4.28%
52W High
$23.84
52W Low
$16.96
Quality & Growth
ROE
2095.1%
ROA
702.2%
Gross Margin
6291.8%
Operating Margin
5604.8%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
1.86
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 25.0 (moderate relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 5.1x; PEG ratio of -2.2 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 21.0%; Return on assets of 7.0%; Net margin of 30.4%; Gross margin of 62.9%; Current ratio of 0.84 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 1.86; Free cash flow per share is positive (2.06); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 18.9%; 2 consecutive earnings misses; EPS growth accelerating (-13.3% -> -8.5% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of -8.5%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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