AMBA · NASDAQ · STOCK
Ambarella (AMBA) Stock Analysis
$67.39
52W $48.30 – $96.69
56/100
$2.96B
-52.3
2.09
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is AMBA Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Ambarella, Inc. (AMBA) Buy with a composite score of 56/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +18.54 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -1.46 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Growth Analyst sees a compelling case — 5 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- 5 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.00) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock — Risk
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 4.6x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- ROE of only -9.3% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason — Value
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- Trend and market structure agree -- coherent bearish picture — Technical
- Daily trend (downtrend) conflicts with the weekly trend (uptrend) -- fighting the larger trend — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
56/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 65%
of 287 Technology peers
Value Analyst
neutral
43
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
− Price-to-book of 4.6x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
bullish
77
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ 5 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution
Technical Analyst
bearish
39
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is deteriorating -- trend and/or momentum are working against this name
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate risk -- no single red flag, but nothing that clearly de-risks the position either
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.00) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
− Bollinger bandwidth of 15.1% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 56.1 to 56.5.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: News Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- News Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 63->58 (-5).
- Technical Analyst: score 31->39 (+8).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
49.9
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.123
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$61.72
Resistance
$72.44
Bollinger %B
0.50
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$67.05
Above
EMA 21
$67.84
Below
EMA 50
$69.46
Below
EMA 200
$70.02
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
83
Growth
93
Profitability
24
Financial Health
100
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
-52.3×
P/B Ratio
4.78×
PEG Ratio
-0.98
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$96.69
52W Low
$48.30
Quality & Growth
ROE
-1275.5%
ROA
-950.0%
Gross Margin
5828.6%
Operating Margin
-1431.6%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.02
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of -52.3 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 4.8x; PEG ratio of -1.0 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of -12.8%; Return on assets of -9.5%; Net margin of -13.5%; Gross margin of 58.3%; Current ratio of 2.85 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.02; Free cash flow per share is positive (0.21); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 3.3%; 5 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (-15.4% -> +63.6% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 20.0%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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