APLD · NASDAQ · STOCK
Applied Digital (APLD) Stock Analysis
$23.69
52W $19.00 – $50.73
48/100
$6.82B
-14.4
6.00
Is APLD Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Applied Digital Corp. (APLD) Watch with a composite score of 48/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +12.48 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -7.52 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. News Analyst sees a compelling case — news sentiment is positive (+0.40 across 125 articles, 14d). Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Revenue growing 364.9% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum — Growth
- News sentiment is positive (+0.40 across 125 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 7.7x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- ROE of only -16.0% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 2.83 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- 4 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns — Growth
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
48/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 97%
of 287 Technology peers
Value Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Multiples don't clear a genuine value bar here, or cheapness looks justified by weak fundamentals
− Price-to-book of 7.7x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
neutral
47
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ Revenue growing 364.9% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum
− 4 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns
Technical Analyst
bearish
39
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is deteriorating -- trend and/or momentum are working against this name
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 2.83) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.40 across 125 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 47.1 to 47.5.
- New bearish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- News Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
37.2
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.134
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$22.93
Resistance
$32.95
Bollinger %B
0.23
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$24.57
Below
EMA 21
$25.38
Below
EMA 50
$27.17
Below
EMA 200
$29.37
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
88
Growth
5
Profitability
0
Financial Health
50
Cash Flow
15
Valuation
P/E Ratio
-14.4×
P/B Ratio
3.87×
PEG Ratio
0.16
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$50.73
52W Low
$19.00
Quality & Growth
ROE
-1370.6%
ROA
-245.7%
Gross Margin
2022.2%
Operating Margin
-2767.5%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
3.63
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of -14.4 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 3.9x; PEG ratio of 0.2 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of -13.7%; Return on assets of -2.5%; Net margin of -54.2%; Gross margin of 20.2%; Current ratio of 2.56 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 3.63; Free cash flow per share is negative (-15.28); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 145.3%; 4 consecutive earnings misses; EPS growth decelerating (+2.5% -> -94.9% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of -985.7%; Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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