APO · NYSE · STOCK
Apollo Global Management (APO) Stock Analysis
$118.62
52W $99.56 – $153.29
49/100
$68.34B
25.7
1.58
Is APO Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Apollo Global Management (APO) Watch with a composite score of 49/100
, based on 6 analysts with 67% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +11.29 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -8.71 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Revenue growing 40.7% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
Bear Case
- P/E of 37.4 is moderate-to-rich — Value
- EPS declining -44.9% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- 2 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns — Growth
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- Price structure (HH_HL) contradicts the downtrend -- mixed signals — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
49/100
Agreement
67%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 98%
of 211 Financial Services peers
Value Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
− P/E of 37.4 is moderate-to-rich
Growth Analyst
neutral
52
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ Revenue growing 40.7% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum
− EPS declining -44.9% YoY despite any revenue growth
Technical Analyst
neutral
41
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Current ratio of 0.04 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
51
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
− News sentiment is negative (-0.20 across 96 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 47.5 to 48.7.
- Conviction changed from contested to moderate.
- Committee agreement increased notably from 50% to 67%.
- New bearish signals: 3 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 4 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Technical Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- News Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: stance bearish->neutral; score 34->41 (+8).
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
50.1
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.091
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Sideways
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$118.14
Resistance
$126.40
Bollinger %B
0.40
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$117.18
Above
EMA 21
$120.52
Below
EMA 50
$124.33
Below
EMA 200
$126.99
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
76
Growth
69
Profitability
52
Financial Health
96
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
25.7×
P/B Ratio
3.34×
PEG Ratio
-1.80
Dividend Yield
1.81%
52W High
$153.29
52W Low
$99.56
Quality & Growth
ROE
1496.1%
ROA
75.8%
Gross Margin
8445.2%
Operating Margin
2413.2%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.65
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 25.7 (moderate relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 3.3x; PEG ratio of -1.8 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 15.0%; Return on assets of 0.8%; Net margin of 5.2%; Gross margin of 84.5%; Current ratio of 3.21 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.65; Free cash flow per share is positive (13.49); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 3.9%; 2 consecutive earnings misses; EPS growth accelerating (-21.5% -> +8.8% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 9.9%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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