APPF · NASDAQ · STOCK
AppFolio (APPF) Stock Analysis
$202.26
52W $142.56 – $265.02
55/100
$7.22B
45.9
0.89
Is APPF Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates AppFolio (APPF) Watch with a composite score of 55/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +5.17 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -14.83 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 30.9% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Weekly trend (sideways) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
- Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.00) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock — Risk
- News sentiment is positive (+0.20 across 15 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- P/E of 44.9 is expensive by classic value standards — Value
- Price-to-book of 15.4x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- EPS declining -20.9% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- Bollinger bandwidth of 17.3% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
55/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 76%
of 287 Technology peers
Value Analyst
neutral
49
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 30.9% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− P/E of 44.9 is expensive by classic value standards
Growth Analyst
bearish
40
/ 100 · High confidence
Growth story is weak, decelerating, or inconsistent
− EPS declining -20.9% YoY despite any revenue growth
Technical Analyst
neutral
54
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ Weekly trend (sideways) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Risk Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate risk -- no single red flag, but nothing that clearly de-risks the position either
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.00) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
− Bollinger bandwidth of 17.3% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
64
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.20 across 15 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 54.9 to 54.8.
- New bearish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- News Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
47.3
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.841
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Sideways
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$199.91
Resistance
$211.15
Bollinger %B
0.36
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$201.75
Above
EMA 21
$205.09
Below
EMA 50
$202.86
Below
EMA 200
$195.77
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
33
Growth
58
Profitability
94
Financial Health
100
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
45.9×
P/B Ratio
13.66×
PEG Ratio
-2.17
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$265.02
52W Low
$142.56
Quality & Growth
ROE
2597.3%
ROA
1951.1%
Gross Margin
6304.1%
Operating Margin
1751.8%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.07
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 45.9 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 13.7x; PEG ratio of -2.2 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 26.0%; Return on assets of 19.5%; Net margin of 15.1%; Gross margin of 63.0%; Current ratio of 3.83 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.07; Free cash flow per share is positive (7.57); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 0.8%; EPS growth decelerating (+15.8% -> +6.2% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 23.9%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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