ARCC · NASDAQ · STOCK
Ares Capital Corporation
$19.96
52W $17.40 – $22.76
60/100
$14.34B
14.8
0.62
Is ARCC Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Ares Capital Corporation (ARCC) Watch with a composite score of 60/100
, based on 5 analysts with 60% agreement.
Last updated August 11, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +0.47 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -19.53 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Value Analyst sees a compelling case — p/e of 15.0 is inexpensive for the broad market. Growth Analyst remains cautious — eps declining -34.1% yoy despite any revenue growth. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 15.0 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- Price-to-book of 1.0x is a discount to asset value — Value
- Dividend yield of 9.6% pays you to wait — Value
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking — Macro
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
Bear Case
- EPS declining -34.1% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- RSI at 71 is in overbought territory — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of August 11, 2026
Overall Committee Score
60/100
Agreement
60%
Analysts
5
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 73%
of 209 Financial Services peers
Value Analyst
bullish
80
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ P/E of 15.0 is inexpensive for the broad market
Growth Analyst
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Growth story is weak, decelerating, or inconsistent
− EPS declining -34.1% YoY despite any revenue growth
Technical Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
− RSI at 71 is in overbought territory
Macro Analyst
bullish
78
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking
News Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
Portfolio Manager
neutral
55
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− 2 existing position pair(s) are highly correlated already
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
70.9
Overbought
MACD Histogram
0.110
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$19.39
Resistance
$20.84
Bollinger %B
0.94
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$19.59
Above
EMA 21
$19.24
Above
EMA 50
$18.97
Above
EMA 200
$19.41
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
100
Profitability
72
Financial Health
50
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
14.8×
P/B Ratio
1.03×
PEG Ratio
-0.43
Dividend Yield
9.61%
52W High
$22.76
52W Low
$17.40
Quality & Growth
ROE
907.2%
ROA
415.9%
Gross Margin
6704.1%
Operating Margin
6293.2%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.00
AI Fundamental Assessment
[reduced confidence: limited earnings history] P/E ratio of 14.8 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 1.0x; PEG ratio of -0.4 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 9.1%; Return on assets of 4.2%; Net margin of 41.5%; Gross margin of 67.0%; Current ratio of 0.00 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.00; Free cash flow per share is positive (1.48); Earnings-history trend unavailable; growth based on TTM year-over-year only.
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