ARCC · NASDAQ · STOCK
Ares Capital (ARCC) Stock Analysis
$18.55
52W $17.40 – $21.14
59/100
$13.33B
13.7
0.66
Is ARCC Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Ares Capital Corporation (ARCC) Buy with a composite score of 59/100
, based on 5 analysts with 60% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +16.41 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -3.59 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Value Analyst sees a compelling case — p/e of 14.0 is inexpensive for the broad market. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 14.0 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- Price-to-book of 1.0x is a discount to asset value — Value
- Dividend yield of 9.7% pays you to wait — Value
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Weekly trend (downtrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
Bear Case
- EPS declining -34.1% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- 4 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns — Growth
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- Price structure (HH_HL) contradicts the downtrend -- mixed signals — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
59/100
Agreement
60%
Analysts
5
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 55%
of 211 Financial Services peers
Value Analyst
bullish
80
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ P/E of 14.0 is inexpensive for the broad market
Growth Analyst
neutral
41
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
− EPS declining -34.1% YoY despite any revenue growth
Technical Analyst
neutral
47
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ Weekly trend (downtrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
60
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 58.6 to 58.6.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Value Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
32.3
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.067
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$18.31
Resistance
$19.27
Bollinger %B
0.09
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$18.80
Below
EMA 21
$19.08
Below
EMA 50
$19.26
Below
EMA 200
$19.43
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
100
Growth
32
Profitability
72
Financial Health
48
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
13.7×
P/B Ratio
0.96×
PEG Ratio
-0.40
Dividend Yield
10.35%
52W High
$21.14
52W Low
$17.40
Quality & Growth
ROE
907.2%
ROA
415.9%
Gross Margin
6704.1%
Operating Margin
6293.2%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
1.14
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 13.7 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 1.0x; PEG ratio of -0.4 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 9.1%; Return on assets of 4.2%; Net margin of 41.5%; Gross margin of 67.0%; Current ratio of 1.14 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 1.14; Free cash flow per share is positive (1.48); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 2.6%; 4 consecutive earnings misses; EPS growth accelerating (-6.0% -> +0.0% QoQ); Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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