ARES · NYSE · STOCK
Ares Management (ARES) Stock Analysis
$117.20
52W $95.80 – $181.19
51/100
$38.50B
51.2
1.55
Is ARES Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Ares Management (ARES) Watch with a composite score of 51/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +9.43 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -10.57 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 15.2% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Dividend yield of 2.8% pays you to wait — Value
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
Bear Case
- P/E of 41.4 is expensive by classic value standards — Value
- Price-to-book of 8.2x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 3.17 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- 3 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns — Growth
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- Price structure (HH_HL) contradicts the downtrend -- mixed signals — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
51/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 93%
of 211 Financial Services peers
Value Analyst
bearish
40
/ 100 · High confidence
Multiples don't clear a genuine value bar here, or cheapness looks justified by weak fundamentals
+ ROE of 15.2% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− P/E of 41.4 is expensive by classic value standards
Growth Analyst
neutral
57
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
− 3 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns
Technical Analyst
neutral
49
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
bearish
33
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 3.17) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
60
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 49.0 to 50.6.
- New bearish signals: 2 appeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 3 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: score 41->49 (+8); +1 bullish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
37.4
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.032
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Sideways
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$112.87
Resistance
$137.87
Bollinger %B
0.29
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$117.76
Below
EMA 21
$121.81
Below
EMA 50
$126.51
Below
EMA 200
$132.11
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
27
Growth
49
Profitability
57
Financial Health
1
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
51.2×
P/B Ratio
6.69×
PEG Ratio
1.79
Dividend Yield
4.41%
52W High
$181.19
52W Low
$95.80
Quality & Growth
ROE
1233.5%
ROA
181.9%
Gross Margin
6268.9%
Operating Margin
2318.0%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
3.75
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 51.2 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 6.7x; PEG ratio of 1.8 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 12.3%; Return on assets of 1.8%; Net margin of 10.0%; Gross margin of 62.7%; Current ratio of 0.83 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 3.75; Free cash flow per share is positive (3.69); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 2.3%; 3 consecutive earnings misses; EPS growth accelerating (-14.5% -> +4.0% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 25.2%; Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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