AXP · NYSE · STOCK
American Express (AXP) Stock Analysis
$336.12
52W $290.97 – $387.49
48/100
$226.90B
20.4
1.05
Is AXP Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates American Express (AXP) Watch with a composite score of 48/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated August 23, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +11.53 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -8.47 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case. Risk Analyst remains cautious — high leverage (debt-to-equity 6.28) amplifies downside in a stress scenario. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 34.1% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 7.6x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 6.28 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- High leverage (debt-to-equity 6.28) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk
- Current ratio of 0.64 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of August 23, 2026
Overall Committee Score
48/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 95%
of 211 Financial Services peers
Value Analyst
neutral
50
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 34.1% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− Price-to-book of 7.6x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
bearish
38
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Growth story is weak, decelerating, or inconsistent
− Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level
Technical Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Risk Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 6.28) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 3069.37)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 48.5 to 48.5.
Comparing 2026-08-22 to 2026-08-23 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
43.6
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.930
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$334.14
Resistance
$339.95
Bollinger %B
0.31
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$338.19
Below
EMA 21
$340.07
Below
EMA 50
$338.23
Below
EMA 200
$331.00
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
62
Growth
59
Profitability
76
Financial Health
51
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
20.4×
P/B Ratio
6.65×
PEG Ratio
1.26
Dividend Yield
1.05%
52W High
$387.49
52W Low
$290.97
Quality & Growth
ROE
3236.2%
ROA
361.0%
Gross Margin
8434.9%
Operating Margin
2718.0%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
1.72
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 20.4 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 6.6x; PEG ratio of 1.3 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 32.4%; Return on assets of 3.6%; Net margin of 13.6%; Gross margin of 84.3%; Current ratio of 1.55 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 1.72; Free cash flow per share is positive (22.20); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 1.8%; 2 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth decelerating (+21.2% -> +5.8% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 11.0%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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