AZO · NYSE · STOCK
AutoZone (AZO) Stock Analysis
$2,851.83
52W $2855.36 – $4332.68
49/100
$46.69B
19.2
0.34
Is AZO Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates AutoZone (AZO) Watch with a composite score of 49/100
, based on 6 analysts with 67% agreement.
Last updated September 17, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +10.83 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -9.17 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case. Risk Analyst remains cautious — high leverage (debt-to-equity 9.80) amplifies downside in a stress scenario. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 249.3% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 38.1x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 9.80 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- EPS declining -1.7% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- High leverage (debt-to-equity 9.80) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of September 17, 2026
Overall Committee Score
49/100
Agreement
67%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 90%
of 178 Consumer Cyclical peers
Value Analyst
neutral
50
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 249.3% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− Price-to-book of 38.1x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
− EPS declining -1.7% YoY despite any revenue growth
Technical Analyst
neutral
42
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 9.80) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2514.55)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 49.2 to 49.2.
Comparing 2026-09-16 to 2026-09-17 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
36.5
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-6.455
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Sideways
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$2741.82
Resistance
$3050.50
Bollinger %B
0.05
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$2,921.83
Below
EMA 21
$2,957.37
Below
EMA 50
$3,017.17
Below
EMA 200
$3,293.14
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
94
Growth
74
Profitability
60
Financial Health
54
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
19.2×
P/B Ratio
-16.92×
PEG Ratio
-11.07
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$4332.68
52W Low
$2855.36
Quality & Growth
ROE
-7317.0%
ROA
1290.7%
Gross Margin
5175.4%
Operating Margin
1802.5%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
-4.54
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 19.2 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of -16.9x; PEG ratio of -11.1 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of -73.2%; Return on assets of 12.9%; Net margin of 12.4%; Gross margin of 51.8%; Current ratio of 0.89 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of -4.54; Free cash flow per share is positive (99.18); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 3.9%; 2 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (-11.0% -> +37.8% QoQ); Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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