BABA · NYSE · STOCK
Alibaba Group Holding (BABA) Stock Analysis
$118.44
52W $91.99 – $192.67
54/100
$283.96B
25.2
0.51
Is BABA Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Alibaba Group Holding (BABA) Watch with a composite score of 54/100
, based on 6 analysts with 83% agreement.
Last updated August 25, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +5.54 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -14.46 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee sees neither a compelling opportunity nor a clear risk at this stage. Conditions remain neutral — patience is warranted.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.25) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock — Risk
Bear Case
- P/E of 27.6 is moderate-to-rich — Value
- EPS declining -50.7% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- 5 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns — Growth
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- Bollinger bandwidth of 17.8% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of August 25, 2026
Overall Committee Score
54/100
Agreement
83%
Analysts
6
Conviction
High
Sector Rank
Top 66%
of 178 Consumer Cyclical peers
Value Analyst
neutral
55
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
− P/E of 27.6 is moderate-to-rich
Growth Analyst
neutral
41
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
− EPS declining -50.7% YoY despite any revenue growth
Technical Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Risk Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate risk -- no single red flag, but nothing that clearly de-risks the position either
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.25) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
− Bollinger bandwidth of 17.8% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
60
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 3063.01)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 54.5 to 54.5.
Comparing 2026-08-24 to 2026-08-25 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
35.9
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-1.099
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$117.97
Resistance
$134.50
Bollinger %B
0.21
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$124.12
Below
EMA 21
$122.99
Below
EMA 50
$120.72
Below
EMA 200
$129.42
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
85
Growth
25
Profitability
46
Financial Health
73
Cash Flow
15
Valuation
P/E Ratio
25.2×
P/B Ratio
1.74×
PEG Ratio
-0.49
Dividend Yield
0.90%
52W High
$192.67
52W Low
$91.99
Quality & Growth
ROE
980.1%
ROA
544.5%
Gross Margin
3813.6%
Operating Margin
420.8%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.25
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 25.2 (moderate relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 1.7x; PEG ratio of -0.5 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 9.8%; Return on assets of 5.4%; Net margin of 7.0%; Gross margin of 38.1%; Current ratio of 1.36 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.25; Free cash flow per share is negative (-22.13); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 20.3%; 5 consecutive earnings misses; EPS growth accelerating (-91.3% -> +1266.1% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of -42.6%; Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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