BBVA · NYSE · STOCK
Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA) Stock Analysis
$26.11
52W $17.90 – $29.64
57/100
$144.32B
12.0
0.89
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is BBVA Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. (BBVA) Buy with a composite score of 57/100
, based on 6 analysts with 67% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +18.15 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -1.85 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Growth Analyst sees a compelling case — revenue growing 72.4% yoy -- genuine top-line momentum. Risk Analyst remains cautious — high leverage (debt-to-equity 2.04) amplifies downside in a stress scenario. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 11.4 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- ROE of 19.3% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Dividend yield of 5.6% pays you to wait — Value
- Revenue growing 72.4% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum — Growth
- 4 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- News sentiment is positive (+0.20 across 19 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- Debt-to-equity of 2.04 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- RSI at 23 is in oversold territory (could mean either capitulation or a bounce setup) — Technical
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- High leverage (debt-to-equity 2.04) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
57/100
Agreement
67%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 65%
of 211 Financial Services peers
Value Analyst
bullish
61
/ 100 · High confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ P/E of 11.4 is inexpensive for the broad market
− Debt-to-equity of 2.04 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case
Growth Analyst
bullish
82
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Revenue growing 72.4% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum
Technical Analyst
bearish
38
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is deteriorating -- trend and/or momentum are working against this name
− RSI at 23 is in oversold territory (could mean either capitulation or a bounce setup)
Risk Analyst
bearish
30
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 2.04) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
64
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.20 across 19 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 57.2 to 56.9.
- New bearish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- News Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
23.4
Oversold
MACD Histogram
-0.268
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$20.70
Resistance
$26.19
Bollinger %B
0.06
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$26.91
Below
EMA 21
$27.62
Below
EMA 50
$27.67
Below
EMA 200
$24.70
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
91
Growth
83
Profitability
76
Financial Health
17
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
12.0×
P/B Ratio
2.16×
PEG Ratio
1.32
Dividend Yield
3.98%
52W High
$29.64
52W Low
$17.90
Quality & Growth
ROE
1832.6%
ROA
122.3%
Gross Margin
8329.3%
Operating Margin
4265.8%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
1.80
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 12.0 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 2.2x; PEG ratio of 1.3 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 18.3%; Return on assets of 1.2%; Net margin of 27.3%; Gross margin of 83.3%; Current ratio of 0.47 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 1.80; Free cash flow per share is positive (24.20); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 3.4%; 4 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth roughly steady (+4.1% -> +5.9% QoQ); Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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