COIN · NASDAQ · STOCK
Coinbase (COIN) Stock Analysis
$186.05
52W $139.11 – $402.16
48/100
$47.35B
-48.6
3.36
Is COIN Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Coinbase (COIN) Watch with a composite score of 48/100
, based on 5 analysts with 40% agreement.
Last updated August 25, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +12.47 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -7.53 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case. Growth Analyst remains cautious — 3 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
Bear Case
- 3 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns — Growth
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- RSI at 78 is in overbought territory — Technical
- Price trading above the upper Bollinger Band -- stretched — Technical
- Bollinger bandwidth of 28.1% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of August 25, 2026
Overall Committee Score
48/100
Agreement
40%
Analysts
5
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 98%
of 211 Financial Services peers
Growth Analyst
bearish
28
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Growth story is weak, decelerating, or inconsistent
− 3 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns
Technical Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
− RSI at 78 is in overbought territory
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Bollinger bandwidth of 28.1% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 3063.01)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score strengthened from 43.9 to 47.5.
- Committee agreement fell notably from 50% to 40%.
- Bearish pressure eased: 3 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) abstained: Value Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Growth Analyst: score 23->28 (+4).
- Value Analyst abstained (was bearish at 30).
Comparing 2026-08-24 to 2026-08-25 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
68.0
Neutral
MACD Histogram
4.009
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$162.57
Resistance
$181.48
Bollinger %B
0.98
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$165.57
Above
EMA 21
$160.21
Above
EMA 50
$162.20
Above
EMA 200
$196.44
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
89
Growth
6
Profitability
46
Financial Health
81
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
-48.6×
P/B Ratio
3.61×
PEG Ratio
0.37
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$402.16
52W Low
$139.11
Quality & Growth
ROE
852.0%
ROA
424.8%
Gross Margin
7901.2%
Operating Margin
-42.7%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.51
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of -48.6 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 3.6x; PEG ratio of 0.4 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 8.5%; Return on assets of 4.2%; Net margin of -17.8%; Gross margin of 79.0%; Current ratio of 1.54 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.51; Free cash flow per share is positive (10.10); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 574.4%; 3 consecutive earnings misses; EPS growth decelerating (+40.2% -> +21.5% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of -159.7%; Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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