CPAY · NYSE · STOCK
Corpay (CPAY) Stock Analysis
$397.87
52W $252.84 – $427.46
57/100
$26.01B
23.9
0.89
Is CPAY Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Corpay (CPAY) Watch with a composite score of 57/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +2.71 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -17.29 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Growth Analyst sees a compelling case — quarter-over-quarter growth rate is accelerating, not just positive. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 30.4% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- News sentiment is positive (+0.17 across 12 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 5.4x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 2.58 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- High leverage (debt-to-equity 2.58) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk
- Current ratio of 0.98 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
57/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 57%
of 287 Technology peers
Value Analyst
neutral
50
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 30.4% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− Price-to-book of 5.4x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
bullish
75
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
Technical Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
Risk Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 2.58) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
63
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.17 across 12 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 57.3 to 57.3.
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
46.8
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.429
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$335.55
Resistance
$400.60
Bollinger %B
0.45
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$399.30
Below
EMA 21
$399.87
Below
EMA 50
$395.76
Above
EMA 200
$359.67
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
39
Growth
82
Profitability
85
Financial Health
7
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
23.9×
P/B Ratio
7.36×
PEG Ratio
2.16
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$427.46
52W Low
$252.84
Quality & Growth
ROE
2754.5%
ROA
405.1%
Gross Margin
7334.5%
Operating Margin
4080.1%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
3.00
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 23.9 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 7.4x; PEG ratio of 2.2 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 27.5%; Return on assets of 4.1%; Net margin of 22.7%; Gross margin of 73.3%; Current ratio of 0.97 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 3.00; Free cash flow per share is positive (25.00); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 4.4%; 2 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (-4.0% -> +20.7% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 36.5%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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