CRCL · NYSE · STOCK
Circle Internet Group
$71.19
52W $49.90 – $189.92
57/100
$19.02B
37.7
0.23
Is CRCL Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Circle Internet Group (CRCL) Buy with a composite score of 57/100
, based on 4 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated August 11, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +17.72 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -2.28 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case — vix regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking. Risk Analyst remains cautious — bollinger bandwidth of 19.2% signals elevated volatility. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Weekly trend (downtrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
- VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking — Macro
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
Bear Case
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- Price trading above the upper Bollinger Band -- stretched — Technical
- Bollinger bandwidth of 19.2% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of August 11, 2026
Overall Committee Score
57/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
4
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 80%
of 209 Financial Services peers
Technical Analyst
neutral
56
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Bollinger bandwidth of 19.2% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
78
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking
News Analyst
bullish
60
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
Portfolio Manager
neutral
55
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− 2 existing position pair(s) are highly correlated already
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
69.7
Neutral
MACD Histogram
1.494
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$64.98
Resistance
$91.22
Bollinger %B
1.05
Above Upper Band
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$65.86
Above
EMA 21
$65.87
Above
EMA 50
$72.74
Below
EMA 200
$89.83
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
52
Profitability
23
Financial Health
60
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
37.7×
P/B Ratio
5.03×
PEG Ratio
0.98
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$189.92
52W Low
$49.90
Quality & Growth
ROE
-208.8%
ROA
-8.8%
Gross Margin
2568.9%
Operating Margin
781.1%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.00
AI Fundamental Assessment
[reduced confidence: limited earnings history] P/E ratio of 37.7 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 5.0x; PEG ratio of 1.0 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of -2.1%; Return on assets of -0.1%; Net margin of 15.5%; Gross margin of 25.7%; Current ratio of 1.03 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.00; Free cash flow per share is positive (3.13); Earnings-history trend unavailable; growth based on TTM year-over-year only.
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