CVLT · NASDAQ · STOCK
CommVault Systems (CVLT) Stock Analysis
$157.45
52W $71.75 – $177.81
53/100
$6.52B
99.5
0.79
Is CVLT Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates CommVault Systems (CVLT) Watch with a composite score of 53/100
, based on 6 analysts with 33% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +7.29 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -12.71 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Technical Analyst sees a compelling case — price structure making higher highs and higher lows. Risk Analyst remains cautious — high leverage (debt-to-equity 117.54) amplifies downside in a stress scenario. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 56.1% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- 3 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Weekly trend (uptrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
Bear Case
- P/E of 91.6 is expensive by classic value standards — Value
- Price-to-book of 457.1x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 117.54 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- EPS declining -12.6% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- Price trading above the upper Bollinger Band -- stretched — Technical
- High leverage (debt-to-equity 117.54) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
53/100
Agreement
33%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 87%
of 287 Technology peers
Value Analyst
bearish
40
/ 100 · High confidence
Multiples don't clear a genuine value bar here, or cheapness looks justified by weak fundamentals
+ ROE of 56.1% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− P/E of 91.6 is expensive by classic value standards
Growth Analyst
neutral
55
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ 3 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution
− EPS declining -12.6% YoY despite any revenue growth
Technical Analyst
bullish
69
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
− Price trading above the upper Bollinger Band -- stretched
Risk Analyst
bearish
30
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 117.54) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 52.7 to 52.7.
- New bearish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Technical Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
68.1
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.484
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$139.52
Resistance
$178.31
Bollinger %B
1.05
Above Upper Band
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$151.74
Above
EMA 21
$147.88
Above
EMA 50
$142.23
Above
EMA 200
$130.52
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
33
Growth
85
Profitability
66
Financial Health
50
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
99.5×
P/B Ratio
124.91×
PEG Ratio
-7.04
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$177.81
52W Low
$71.75
Quality & Growth
ROE
—
ROA
374.6%
Gross Margin
8087.6%
Operating Margin
766.7%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
17.63
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 99.5 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 124.9x; PEG ratio of -7.0 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 942.8%; Return on assets of 3.7%; Net margin of 5.6%; Gross margin of 80.9%; Current ratio of 2.04 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 17.63; Free cash flow per share is positive (6.25); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 19.9%; 3 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth roughly steady (+9.4% -> +10.9% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 40.6%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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