DBX · NASDAQ · STOCK
Dropbox (DBX) Stock Analysis
$34.35
52W $21.70 – $38.17
46/100
$8.75B
18.9
0.63
Is DBX Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Dropbox (DBX) Watch with a composite score of 46/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +14.09 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -5.91 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case. Growth Analyst remains cautious — revenue declining -0.1% yoy -- this is not a growth story right now. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
Insufficient data for bull case.
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 27.5x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- ROE of only -36.8% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason — Value
- Revenue declining -0.1% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now — Growth
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- Current ratio of 0.63 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
46/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 99%
of 287 Technology peers
Value Analyst
bearish
40
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Multiples don't clear a genuine value bar here, or cheapness looks justified by weak fundamentals
− Price-to-book of 27.5x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
bearish
25
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Growth story is weak, decelerating, or inconsistent
− Revenue declining -0.1% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now
Technical Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Current ratio of 0.63 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 45.7 to 45.9.
- New bearish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
53.9
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.028
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Bollinger %B
0.47
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$33.92
Above
EMA 21
$34.17
Above
EMA 50
$33.65
Above
EMA 200
$30.10
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
79
Growth
62
Profitability
72
Financial Health
61
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
18.9×
P/B Ratio
-3.53×
PEG Ratio
1.96
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$38.17
52W Low
$21.70
Quality & Growth
ROE
-2828.8%
ROA
1743.3%
Gross Margin
7971.6%
Operating Margin
2648.9%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
-1.82
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 18.9 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of -3.5x; PEG ratio of 2.0 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of -28.3%; Return on assets of 17.4%; Net margin of 17.5%; Gross margin of 79.7%; Current ratio of 1.07 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of -1.82; Free cash flow per share is positive (4.26); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 0.7%; 2 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth decelerating (+11.8% -> -1.3% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 5.6%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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