DLTR · NASDAQ · STOCK
Dollar Tree (DLTR) Stock Analysis
$136.75
52W $84.71 – $142.40
61/100
$25.27B
20.5
0.67
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is DLTR Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Dollar Tree (DLTR) Buy with a composite score of 61/100
, based on 6 analysts with 67% agreement.
Last updated August 25, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +13.91 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -6.09 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
Supporting evidence favours the bullish case. The main limiting factor is price-to-book of 6.2x prices in significant intangible value. The committee is constructive but not yet at full conviction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 35.9% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Revenue growing 51.3% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum — Growth
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- Trend and market structure agree -- coherent bullish picture — Technical
- Weekly trend (uptrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 6.2x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of August 25, 2026
Overall Committee Score
61/100
Agreement
67%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 26%
of 72 Consumer Defensive peers
Value Analyst
neutral
55
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 35.9% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− Price-to-book of 6.2x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
bullish
60
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Revenue growing 51.3% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum
− Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level
Technical Analyst
bullish
61
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Risk Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · Low confidence
Risk profile is manageable -- leverage, volatility, and event exposure all look contained
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
55
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 3063.01)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 61.1 to 61.1.
Comparing 2026-08-24 to 2026-08-25 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
59.6
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.263
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$129.16
Resistance
$133.12
Bollinger %B
0.87
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$129.93
Above
EMA 21
$128.41
Above
EMA 50
$123.43
Above
EMA 200
$113.72
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
63
Growth
60
Profitability
67
Financial Health
23
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
20.5×
P/B Ratio
7.38×
PEG Ratio
0.13
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$142.40
52W Low
$84.71
Quality & Growth
ROE
3415.5%
ROA
952.4%
Gross Margin
3670.7%
Operating Margin
854.5%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
2.17
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 20.5 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 7.4x; PEG ratio of 0.1 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 34.2%; Return on assets of 9.5%; Net margin of 6.5%; Gross margin of 36.7%; Current ratio of 1.16 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 2.17; Free cash flow per share is positive (7.92); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 10.6%; EPS growth decelerating (+111.6% -> -32.0% QoQ); Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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