DLTR · NASDAQ · STOCK
Dollar Tree (DLTR) Stock Analysis
$118.64
52W $85.88 – $142.40
68/100
$22.80B
14.5
0.72
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is DLTR Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Dollar Tree (DLTR) Buy with a composite score of 68/100
, based on 5 analysts with 80% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +7.34 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -12.66 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Growth Analyst sees a compelling case — revenue growing 48.1% yoy -- genuine top-line momentum. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 13.8 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- ROE of 45.6% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Revenue growing 48.1% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- News sentiment is positive (+0.33 across 26 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 6.2x prices in significant intangible value — Value
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
68/100
Agreement
80%
Analysts
5
Conviction
High
Sector Rank
Top 2%
of 72 Consumer Defensive peers
Value Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ P/E of 13.8 is inexpensive for the broad market
− Price-to-book of 6.2x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
bullish
85
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Revenue growing 48.1% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum
Technical Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
68
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.33 across 26 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 67.7 to 67.7.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Value Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
63.9
Neutral
MACD Histogram
1.029
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$116.05
Resistance
$120.35
Bollinger %B
0.96
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$116.14
Above
EMA 21
$116.87
Above
EMA 50
$119.39
Below
EMA 200
$115.38
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
74
Growth
81
Profitability
71
Financial Health
20
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
14.5×
P/B Ratio
6.60×
PEG Ratio
0.06
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$142.40
52W Low
$85.88
Quality & Growth
ROE
3415.5%
ROA
952.4%
Gross Margin
3873.8%
Operating Margin
1073.6%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
2.24
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 14.5 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 6.6x; PEG ratio of 0.1 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 34.2%; Return on assets of 9.5%; Net margin of 8.0%; Gross margin of 38.7%; Current ratio of 1.13 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 2.24; Free cash flow per share is positive (9.72); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 131.9%; 2 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (-32.0% -> +55.2% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 373.7%; Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
Get the Full DLTR Analysis
Interactive charts · Live committee votes · Trade plan · Paper trading · AI Q&A
Open in Terminal →