ERIE · NASDAQ · STOCK
Erie Indemnity (ERIE) Stock Analysis
$222.04
52W $204.63 – $330.54
61/100
$10.26B
17.9
0.33
Is ERIE Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Erie Indemnity (ERIE) Buy with a composite score of 61/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +14.44 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -5.56 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. News Analyst sees a compelling case — news sentiment is positive (+1.00 across 1 articles, 14d). Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 24.5% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Weekly trend (downtrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
- Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.00) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock — Risk
- News sentiment is positive (+1.00 across 1 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 5.8x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- EPS declining -6.5% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- Bollinger bandwidth of 20.3% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
61/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 42%
of 211 Financial Services peers
Value Analyst
neutral
59
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 24.5% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− Price-to-book of 5.8x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · High confidence
Growth story is weak, decelerating, or inconsistent
− EPS declining -6.5% YoY despite any revenue growth
Technical Analyst
neutral
56
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Risk profile is manageable -- leverage, volatility, and event exposure all look contained
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.00) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
− Bollinger bandwidth of 20.3% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
90
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+1.00 across 1 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 57.9 to 60.6.
- Recommendation changed from Watch to Buy.
- New bearish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- News Analyst: score 74->90 (+16); +1 bullish signal(s).
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
42.9
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.272
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$220.81
Resistance
$228.78
Bollinger %B
0.34
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$222.97
Below
EMA 21
$229.01
Below
EMA 50
$236.23
Below
EMA 200
$254.49
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
82
Growth
42
Profitability
68
Financial Health
69
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
17.9×
P/B Ratio
4.16×
PEG Ratio
-2.36
Dividend Yield
2.63%
52W High
$330.54
52W Low
$204.63
Quality & Growth
ROE
2449.6%
ROA
1666.9%
Gross Margin
1652.6%
Operating Margin
1791.4%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.03
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 17.9 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 4.2x; PEG ratio of -2.4 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 24.5%; Return on assets of 16.7%; Net margin of 14.0%; Gross margin of 16.5%; Current ratio of 1.25 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.03; Free cash flow per share is positive (11.97); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 0.2%; EPS growth decelerating (+138.0% -> +19.8% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 3.3%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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