ERIE · NASDAQ · STOCK
Erie Indemnity (ERIE) Stock Analysis
$245.77
52W $204.63 – $330.54
58/100
$11.58B
20.2
0.30
Is ERIE Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Erie Indemnity (ERIE) Watch with a composite score of 58/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated September 17, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +2.22 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -17.78 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Risk Analyst sees a compelling case — low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.00) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock. Growth Analyst remains cautious — eps declining -6.5% yoy despite any revenue growth. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 24.5% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Weekly trend (sideways) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
- Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.00) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock — Risk
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 5.8x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- EPS declining -6.5% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of September 17, 2026
Overall Committee Score
58/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 65%
of 211 Financial Services peers
Value Analyst
neutral
59
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 24.5% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− Price-to-book of 5.8x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · High confidence
Growth story is weak, decelerating, or inconsistent
− EPS declining -6.5% YoY despite any revenue growth
Technical Analyst
neutral
54
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ Weekly trend (sideways) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Risk Analyst
bullish
80
/ 100 · Low confidence
Risk profile is manageable -- leverage, volatility, and event exposure all look contained
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.00) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2514.55)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 57.8 to 57.8.
Comparing 2026-09-16 to 2026-09-17 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
47.7
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-1.651
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Sideways
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$234.49
Resistance
$260.31
Bollinger %B
0.31
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$250.11
Below
EMA 21
$251.57
Below
EMA 50
$247.58
Below
EMA 200
$260.03
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
77
Growth
42
Profitability
68
Financial Health
69
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
20.2×
P/B Ratio
4.69×
PEG Ratio
-2.66
Dividend Yield
2.30%
52W High
$330.54
52W Low
$204.63
Quality & Growth
ROE
2449.6%
ROA
1666.9%
Gross Margin
1652.6%
Operating Margin
1791.4%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.03
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 20.2 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 4.7x; PEG ratio of -2.7 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 24.5%; Return on assets of 16.7%; Net margin of 14.0%; Gross margin of 16.5%; Current ratio of 1.25 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.03; Free cash flow per share is positive (11.97); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 0.2%; EPS growth decelerating (+138.0% -> +19.8% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 3.3%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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