ESTC · NYSE · STOCK
Elastic (ESTC) Stock Analysis
$98.20
52W $42.05 – $108.00
56/100
$10.21B
27.2
1.04
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is ESTC Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Elastic N.V. (ESTC) Buy with a composite score of 56/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +18.66 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -1.34 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Growth Analyst sees a compelling case — 5 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 35.3% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- 5 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Trend and market structure agree -- coherent bullish picture — Technical
Bear Case
- P/E of 27.2 is moderate-to-rich — Value
- Price-to-book of 9.8x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- RSI at 75 is in overbought territory — Technical
- Price trading above the upper Bollinger Band -- stretched — Technical
- Daily trend (uptrend) conflicts with the weekly trend (downtrend) -- fighting the larger trend — Technical
- Bollinger bandwidth of 16.4% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
56/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 66%
of 287 Technology peers
Value Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 35.3% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− P/E of 27.2 is moderate-to-rich
Growth Analyst
bullish
77
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ 5 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution
Technical Analyst
neutral
51
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
− RSI at 75 is in overbought territory
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Bollinger bandwidth of 16.4% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 58.0 to 56.3.
- New bearish signals: 4 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: score 59->51 (-8); +2 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
74.7
Overbought
MACD Histogram
0.355
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$78.98
Resistance
$107.90
Bollinger %B
1.01
Above Upper Band
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$94.00
Above
EMA 21
$91.28
Above
EMA 50
$84.97
Above
EMA 200
$73.21
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
51
Growth
82
Profitability
100
Financial Health
92
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
27.2×
P/B Ratio
7.93×
PEG Ratio
0.06
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$108.00
52W Low
$42.05
Quality & Growth
ROE
2881.1%
ROA
1166.5%
Gross Margin
7550.4%
Operating Margin
-149.5%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.46
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 27.2 (moderate relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 7.9x; PEG ratio of 0.1 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 28.8%; Return on assets of 11.7%; Net margin of 20.8%; Gross margin of 75.5%; Current ratio of 1.81 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.46; Free cash flow per share is positive (3.34); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 17.5%; 5 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (-16.4% -> +14.8% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 16.7%; Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
Get the Full ESTC Analysis
Interactive charts · Live committee votes · Trade plan · Paper trading · AI Q&A
Open in Terminal →