ESTC · NYSE · STOCK
Elastic N.V.
$76.38
52W $42.05 – $96.07
57/100
$7.94B
21.5
0.97
Is ESTC Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Elastic N.V. (ESTC) Watch with a composite score of 57/100
, based on 4 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated August 11, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +2.71 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -17.29 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case — vix regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking. Risk Analyst remains cautious — bollinger bandwidth of 36.4% signals elevated volatility. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking — Macro
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
- News sentiment is positive (+0.33 across 3 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- RSI at 84 is in overbought territory — Technical
- Weekly RSI at 77 -- overbought on the larger timeframe too — Technical
- Bollinger bandwidth of 36.4% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of August 11, 2026
Overall Committee Score
57/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
4
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 65%
of 284 Technology peers
Technical Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
− RSI at 84 is in overbought territory
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Bollinger bandwidth of 36.4% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
78
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking
News Analyst
bullish
68
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.33 across 3 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
55
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− 2 existing position pair(s) are highly correlated already
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
84.5
Overbought
MACD Histogram
1.333
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$72.17
Resistance
$80.59
Bollinger %B
0.96
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$71.38
Above
EMA 21
$67.01
Above
EMA 50
$62.69
Above
EMA 200
$64.94
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
67
Profitability
100
Financial Health
83
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
21.5×
P/B Ratio
6.24×
PEG Ratio
0.04
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$96.07
52W Low
$42.05
Quality & Growth
ROE
2881.1%
ROA
1166.5%
Gross Margin
7606.7%
Operating Margin
-192.5%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.46
AI Fundamental Assessment
[reduced confidence: limited earnings history] P/E ratio of 21.5 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 6.2x; PEG ratio of 0.0 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 28.8%; Return on assets of 11.7%; Net margin of 21.1%; Gross margin of 76.1%; Current ratio of 1.59 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.46; Free cash flow per share is positive (3.09); Earnings-history trend unavailable; growth based on TTM year-over-year only.
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