HOG · NYSE · STOCK
Harley-Davidson (HOG) Stock Analysis
$25.93
52W $17.09 – $29.88
61/100
$2.73B
15.6
1.30
Is HOG Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Harley-Davidson (HOG) Buy with a composite score of 61/100
, based on 5 analysts with 60% agreement.
Last updated September 20, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +14.45 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -5.55 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Value Analyst sees a compelling case — p/e of 13.3 is inexpensive for the broad market. Growth Analyst remains cautious — revenue declining -5.2% yoy -- this is not a growth story right now. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 13.3 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- Price-to-book of 0.8x is a discount to asset value — Value
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Weekly trend (sideways) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
- News sentiment is positive (+0.20 across 15 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- Revenue declining -5.2% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now — Growth
- EPS declining -16.3% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- Price trading below the lower Bollinger Band -- stretched to the downside — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of September 20, 2026
Overall Committee Score
61/100
Agreement
60%
Analysts
5
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 18%
of 178 Consumer Cyclical peers
Value Analyst
bullish
80
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ P/E of 13.3 is inexpensive for the broad market
Growth Analyst
bearish
40
/ 100 · High confidence
Growth story is weak, decelerating, or inconsistent
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
− Revenue declining -5.2% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now
Technical Analyst
neutral
54
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ Weekly trend (sideways) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
64
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.20 across 15 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2518.64)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 60.5 to 60.5.
Comparing 2026-09-19 to 2026-09-20 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
31.3
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.221
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Sideways
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$25.46
Resistance
$26.66
Bollinger %B
-0.10
Below Lower Band
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$26.94
Below
EMA 21
$27.13
Below
EMA 50
$26.67
Below
EMA 200
$24.89
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
99
Growth
62
Profitability
33
Financial Health
90
Cash Flow
15
Valuation
P/E Ratio
15.6×
P/B Ratio
0.90×
PEG Ratio
-1.05
Dividend Yield
2.86%
52W High
$29.88
52W Low
$17.09
Quality & Growth
ROE
1078.6%
ROA
421.1%
Gross Margin
2389.1%
Operating Margin
507.8%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.74
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 15.6 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 0.9x; PEG ratio of -1.1 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 10.8%; Return on assets of 4.2%; Net margin of 4.9%; Gross margin of 23.9%; Current ratio of 1.90 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.74; Free cash flow per share is negative (-1.24); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 15.6%; 2 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (+112.3% -> +150.0% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of -14.8%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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