HOG · NYSE · STOCK
Harley-Davidson (HOG) Stock Analysis
$27.04
52W $17.09 – $31.25
61/100
$2.92B
16.7
1.29
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is HOG Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Harley-Davidson (HOG) Buy with a composite score of 61/100
, based on 6 analysts with 67% agreement.
Last updated August 17, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +13.51 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -6.49 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Value Analyst sees a compelling case — p/e of 13.5 is inexpensive for the broad market. Risk Analyst remains cautious — bollinger bandwidth of 18.2% signals elevated volatility. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 13.5 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- Price-to-book of 0.8x is a discount to asset value — Value
- Dividend yield of 2.7% pays you to wait — Value
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
Bear Case
- Revenue declining -5.2% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now — Growth
- EPS declining -16.3% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- Bollinger bandwidth of 18.2% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of August 17, 2026
Overall Committee Score
61/100
Agreement
67%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 30%
of 178 Consumer Cyclical peers
Value Analyst
bullish
80
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ P/E of 13.5 is inexpensive for the broad market
Growth Analyst
bearish
40
/ 100 · High confidence
Growth story is weak, decelerating, or inconsistent
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
− Revenue declining -5.2% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now
Technical Analyst
bullish
68
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Bollinger bandwidth of 18.2% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
80
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking
News Analyst
bullish
66
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.25 across 8 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2963.04)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 61.5 to 61.5.
- New bearish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Portfolio Manager: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-08-16 to 2026-08-17 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
66.8
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.189
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Sideways
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$25.46
Resistance
$27.98
Bollinger %B
0.83
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$26.64
Above
EMA 21
$26.19
Above
EMA 50
$25.54
Above
EMA 200
$24.20
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
98
Growth
62
Profitability
33
Financial Health
90
Cash Flow
15
Valuation
P/E Ratio
16.7×
P/B Ratio
0.96×
PEG Ratio
-1.13
Dividend Yield
2.65%
52W High
$31.25
52W Low
$17.09
Quality & Growth
ROE
1078.6%
ROA
421.1%
Gross Margin
2389.1%
Operating Margin
507.8%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.74
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 16.7 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 1.0x; PEG ratio of -1.1 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 10.8%; Return on assets of 4.2%; Net margin of 4.9%; Gross margin of 23.9%; Current ratio of 1.90 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.74; Free cash flow per share is negative (-1.24); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 15.6%; 2 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (+112.3% -> +150.0% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of -14.8%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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