JCI · NYSE · STOCK
Johnson Controls International (JCI) Stock Analysis
$157.44
52W $104.49 – $160.41
57/100
$95.37B
27.3
1.28
Is JCI Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Johnson Controls International (JCI) Watch with a composite score of 57/100
, based on 6 analysts with 67% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +2.79 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -17.21 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The primary driver is price structure making higher highs and higher lows. The main limiting factor is sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). The committee is constructive but not yet at full conviction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 26.9% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Dividend yield of 2.8% pays you to wait — Value
- EPS growing 70.9% YoY — Growth
- 5 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
Bear Case
- P/E of 26.7 is moderate-to-rich — Value
- Price-to-book of 5.6x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- Current ratio of 0.93 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion — Risk
- Bollinger bandwidth of 17.6% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
57/100
Agreement
67%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 50%
of 99 Basic Materials peers
Value Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 26.9% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− P/E of 26.7 is moderate-to-rich
Growth Analyst
bullish
60
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ EPS growing 70.9% YoY
− Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level
Technical Analyst
bullish
69
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Current ratio of 0.93 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
66
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.27 across 19 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 57.2 to 57.2.
- New bearish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- News Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
67.1
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.941
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Bollinger %B
0.84
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$154.23
Above
EMA 21
$150.60
Above
EMA 50
$147.47
Above
EMA 200
$137.35
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
55
Growth
71
Profitability
75
Financial Health
52
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
27.3×
P/B Ratio
7.09×
PEG Ratio
0.39
Dividend Yield
1.02%
52W High
$160.41
52W Low
$104.49
Quality & Growth
ROE
2545.8%
ROA
867.5%
Gross Margin
3665.1%
Operating Margin
1389.9%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.70
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 27.3 (moderate relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 7.1x; PEG ratio of 0.4 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 25.5%; Return on assets of 8.7%; Net margin of 14.3%; Gross margin of 36.7%; Current ratio of 0.97 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.70; Free cash flow per share is positive (3.29); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 7.9%; 5 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth decelerating (+33.7% -> +19.3% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 35.2%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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