KSPI · NASDAQ · STOCK
Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz (KSPI) Analysis
$92.93
52W $68.59 – $109.94
64/100
$17.67B
7.7
0.09
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is KSPI Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz (KSPI) Buy with a composite score of 64/100
, based on 6 analysts with 67% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +10.90 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -9.10 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Risk Analyst sees a compelling case — low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.14) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 7.6 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- ROE of 42.5% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.14) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock — Risk
- News sentiment is positive (+0.50 across 2 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- EPS declining -1.3% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
64/100
Agreement
67%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 9%
of 287 Technology peers
Value Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · High confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ P/E of 7.6 is inexpensive for the broad market
Growth Analyst
neutral
52
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
− EPS declining -1.3% YoY despite any revenue growth
Technical Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Risk Analyst
bullish
75
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Risk profile is manageable -- leverage, volatility, and event exposure all look contained
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.14) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
74
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.50 across 2 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 64.0 to 64.1.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- News Analyst: score 68->74 (+5); +1 bullish signal(s).
- Risk Analyst: score 80->75 (-5).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
39.7
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.242
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$84.95
Resistance
$93.66
Bollinger %B
0.27
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$93.49
Below
EMA 21
$95.33
Below
EMA 50
$95.79
Below
EMA 200
$89.07
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
92
Growth
43
Profitability
98
Financial Health
100
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
7.7×
P/B Ratio
3.04×
PEG Ratio
-1.64
Dividend Yield
6.14%
52W High
$109.94
52W Low
$68.59
Quality & Growth
ROE
4167.2%
ROA
937.0%
Gross Margin
7049.6%
Operating Margin
3701.7%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.46
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 7.7 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 3.0x; PEG ratio of -1.6 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 41.7%; Return on assets of 9.4%; Net margin of 24.0%; Gross margin of 70.5%; Current ratio of 2.30 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.46; Free cash flow per share is positive (5015.21); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 3.4%; EPS growth accelerating (-10.3% -> +2.9% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of -0.4%; Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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