LITE · NASDAQ · STOCK
Lumentum (LITE) Stock Analysis
$1,103.43
52W $152.54 – $1143.00
57/100
$85.84B
-11.9
1.54
Is LITE Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Lumentum (LITE) Watch with a composite score of 57/100
, based on 6 analysts with 67% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +3.24 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -16.76 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The primary driver is price structure making higher highs and higher lows. The main limiting factor is sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). The committee is constructive but not yet at full conviction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Revenue growing 83.2% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum — Growth
- 5 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Trend and market structure agree -- coherent bullish picture — Technical
- Weekly trend (uptrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 14.3x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- ROE of only -300.1% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason — Value
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- Weekly RSI at 77 -- overbought on the larger timeframe too — Technical
- Bollinger bandwidth of 36.8% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
57/100
Agreement
67%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 61%
of 287 Technology peers
Value Analyst
neutral
43
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
− Price-to-book of 14.3x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
bullish
67
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Revenue growing 83.2% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum
− Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level
Technical Analyst
bullish
69
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
− Weekly RSI at 77 -- overbought on the larger timeframe too
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Bollinger bandwidth of 36.8% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 56.4 to 56.8.
- Conviction changed from contested to moderate.
- Committee agreement increased notably from 50% to 67%.
- New bearish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: News Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- News Analyst: stance neutral->bullish.
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
64.7
Neutral
MACD Histogram
11.413
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Bollinger %B
0.84
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$1,059.99
Above
EMA 21
$1,004.16
Above
EMA 50
$938.06
Above
EMA 200
$750.90
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
67
Growth
79
Profitability
14
Financial Health
87
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
-11.9×
P/B Ratio
17.72×
PEG Ratio
0.00
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$1143.00
52W Low
$152.54
Quality & Growth
ROE
-14933.8%
ROA
-9490.4%
Gross Margin
4166.9%
Operating Margin
1741.2%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.36
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of -11.9 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 17.7x; PEG ratio of 0.0 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of -149.3%; Return on assets of -94.9%; Net margin of -230.1%; Gross margin of 41.7%; Current ratio of 1.68 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.36; Free cash flow per share is positive (7.38); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 6.6%; 5 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth decelerating (+41.9% -> +36.3% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 267.1%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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