LYG · NYSE · STOCK
Lloyds Banking Group (LYG) Stock Analysis
$5.89
52W $4.36 – $6.34
56/100
$85.34B
13.7
0.90
Is LYG Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Lloyds Banking Group plc (LYG) Watch with a composite score of 56/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated September 17, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +3.72 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -16.28 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is split. Analysts see this stock differently enough that the current rating reflects genuine uncertainty, not a weak signal.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 12.1 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- Price-to-book of 1.2x is a discount to asset value — Value
- Dividend yield of 5.9% pays you to wait — Value
- 3 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
Bear Case
- Debt-to-equity of 2.72 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- High leverage (debt-to-equity 2.72) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk
- News sentiment is negative (-0.25 across 4 articles, 14d) — News
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of September 17, 2026
Overall Committee Score
56/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 72%
of 211 Financial Services peers
Value Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ P/E of 12.1 is inexpensive for the broad market
− Debt-to-equity of 2.72 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case
Growth Analyst
bullish
60
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ 3 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution
− Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level
Technical Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Risk Analyst
neutral
50
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate risk -- no single red flag, but nothing that clearly de-risks the position either
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 2.72) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
49
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
− News sentiment is negative (-0.25 across 4 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2514.55)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 56.3 to 56.3.
Comparing 2026-09-16 to 2026-09-17 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
40.7
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.011
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$5.04
Resistance
$6.32
Bollinger %B
0.20
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$5.95
Below
EMA 21
$5.98
Below
EMA 50
$5.95
Below
EMA 200
$5.51
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
100
Growth
68
Profitability
63
Financial Health
8
Cash Flow
15
Valuation
P/E Ratio
13.7×
P/B Ratio
1.38×
PEG Ratio
0.66
Dividend Yield
3.63%
52W High
$6.34
52W Low
$4.36
Quality & Growth
ROE
977.4%
ROA
49.4%
Gross Margin
9909.1%
Operating Margin
3826.4%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
2.18
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 13.7 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 1.4x; PEG ratio of 0.7 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 9.8%; Return on assets of 0.5%; Net margin of 26.7%; Gross margin of 99.1%; Current ratio of 0.12 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 2.18; Free cash flow per share is negative (0.00); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 22.1%; 3 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth decelerating (+18.6% -> +0.6% QoQ); Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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