LYG · NYSE · STOCK
Lloyds Banking Group (LYG) Stock Analysis
$5.42
52W $4.44 – $6.34
55/100
$78.52B
12.6
0.94
Is LYG Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Lloyds Banking Group plc (LYG) Watch with a composite score of 55/100
, based on 6 analysts with 67% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +5.02 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -14.98 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The primary driver is p/e of 11.1 is inexpensive for the broad market. The main limiting factor is high leverage (debt-to-equity 2.72) amplifies downside in a stress scenario. The committee is constructive but not yet at full conviction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 11.1 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- Price-to-book of 1.2x is a discount to asset value — Value
- Dividend yield of 5.9% pays you to wait — Value
- 3 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
Bear Case
- Debt-to-equity of 2.72 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- High leverage (debt-to-equity 2.72) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
55/100
Agreement
67%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 79%
of 211 Financial Services peers
Value Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ P/E of 11.1 is inexpensive for the broad market
− Debt-to-equity of 2.72 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case
Growth Analyst
bullish
60
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ 3 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution
− Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level
Technical Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Risk Analyst
bearish
30
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 2.72) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 54.8 to 55.0.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Value Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
33.8
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.023
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$5.04
Resistance
$5.75
Bollinger %B
0.16
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$5.50
Below
EMA 21
$5.64
Below
EMA 50
$5.78
Below
EMA 200
$5.53
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
100
Growth
68
Profitability
63
Financial Health
8
Cash Flow
15
Valuation
P/E Ratio
12.6×
P/B Ratio
1.27×
PEG Ratio
0.61
Dividend Yield
3.95%
52W High
$6.34
52W Low
$4.44
Quality & Growth
ROE
977.4%
ROA
49.4%
Gross Margin
9909.1%
Operating Margin
3826.4%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
2.18
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 12.6 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 1.3x; PEG ratio of 0.6 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 9.8%; Return on assets of 0.5%; Net margin of 26.7%; Gross margin of 99.1%; Current ratio of 0.12 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 2.18; Free cash flow per share is negative (0.00); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 22.1%; 3 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth decelerating (+18.6% -> +0.6% QoQ); Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
Get the Full LYG Analysis
Interactive charts · Live committee votes · Trade plan · Paper trading · AI Q&A
Open in Terminal →