MA · NYSE · STOCK
Mastercard (MA) Stock Analysis
$579.35
52W $464.52 – $601.62
72/100
$507.99B
31.8
0.73
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is MA Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Mastercard Inc. (MA) Buy with a composite score of 72/100
, based on 4 analysts with 100% agreement.
Last updated September 06, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +2.52 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -17.48 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The primary driver is 3 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution. The main limiting factor is sector concentration is already high (hhi 2704.43). The committee is constructive but not yet at full conviction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- 3 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- Trend and market structure agree -- coherent bullish picture — Technical
- Weekly trend (uptrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
- VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking — Macro
Bear Case
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of September 06, 2026
Overall Committee Score
72/100
Agreement
100%
Analysts
4
Conviction
Unanimous
Sector Rank
Top 7%
of 211 Financial Services peers
Growth Analyst
bullish
82
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ 3 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution
Technical Analyst
bullish
61
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Macro Analyst
bullish
80
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking
News Analyst
bullish
66
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.27 across 72 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2704.43)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score strengthened significantly from 59.9 to 72.5.
- Conviction changed from contested to unanimous.
- Committee agreement increased sharply from 67% to 100%.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 4 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) abstained: Risk Analyst, Value Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Growth Analyst: score 77->82 (+6).
- Risk Analyst abstained (was bearish at 30).
- Value Analyst abstained (was neutral at 45).
Comparing 2026-09-05 to 2026-09-06 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
44.1
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-2.125
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$527.74
Resistance
$582.09
Bollinger %B
0.49
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$585.39
Below
EMA 21
$579.29
Above
EMA 50
$560.04
Above
EMA 200
$536.97
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
37
Growth
83
Profitability
100
Financial Health
11
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
31.8×
P/B Ratio
91.05×
PEG Ratio
1.41
Dividend Yield
0.58%
52W High
$601.62
52W Low
$464.52
Quality & Growth
ROE
19346.0%
ROA
2763.8%
Gross Margin
10000.0%
Operating Margin
5983.5%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
4.39
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 31.8 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 91.0x; PEG ratio of 1.4 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 193.5%; Return on assets of 27.6%; Net margin of 46.3%; Gross margin of 100.0%; Current ratio of 1.06 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 4.39; Free cash flow per share is positive (18.65); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 2.7%; 3 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (-3.4% -> +9.6% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 21.4%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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