MA · NYSE · STOCK
Mastercard (MA) Stock Analysis
$580.60
52W $464.52 – $601.62
56/100
$509.23B
31.9
0.73
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is MA Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Mastercard Inc. (MA) Buy with a composite score of 56/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated August 23, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +19.10 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -0.90 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Growth Analyst sees a compelling case — 3 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution. Risk Analyst remains cautious — high leverage (debt-to-equity 2.46) amplifies downside in a stress scenario. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 232.5% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- 3 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- Weekly trend (uptrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
Bear Case
- P/E of 30.2 is moderate-to-rich — Value
- Price-to-book of 66.3x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 2.46 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- High leverage (debt-to-equity 2.46) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of August 23, 2026
Overall Committee Score
56/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 76%
of 211 Financial Services peers
Value Analyst
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 232.5% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− P/E of 30.2 is moderate-to-rich
Growth Analyst
bullish
77
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ 3 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution
Technical Analyst
bullish
61
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Risk Analyst
bearish
30
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 2.46) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 3069.37)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 55.9 to 55.9.
Comparing 2026-08-22 to 2026-08-23 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
69.6
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.655
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$527.74
Resistance
$582.09
Bollinger %B
0.93
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$571.50
Above
EMA 21
$563.61
Above
EMA 50
$545.24
Above
EMA 200
$531.32
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
37
Growth
83
Profitability
100
Financial Health
11
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
31.9×
P/B Ratio
91.27×
PEG Ratio
1.41
Dividend Yield
0.58%
52W High
$601.62
52W Low
$464.52
Quality & Growth
ROE
19346.0%
ROA
2763.8%
Gross Margin
8273.5%
Operating Margin
5943.3%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
4.39
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 31.9 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 91.3x; PEG ratio of 1.4 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 193.5%; Return on assets of 27.6%; Net margin of 46.3%; Gross margin of 82.7%; Current ratio of 1.06 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 4.39; Free cash flow per share is positive (18.65); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 2.7%; 3 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (-3.4% -> +9.6% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 21.4%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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