MA · NYSE · STOCK
Mastercard (MA) Stock Analysis
$589.17
52W $464.52 – $601.23
57/100
$516.70B
32.4
0.76
Is MA Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Mastercard Inc. (MA) Watch with a composite score of 57/100
, based on 6 analysts with 67% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +3.38 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -16.62 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Growth Analyst sees a compelling case — 3 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution. Risk Analyst remains cautious — high leverage (debt-to-equity 2.46) amplifies downside in a stress scenario. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 232.5% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- 3 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Trend and market structure agree -- coherent bullish picture — Technical
Bear Case
- P/E of 31.2 is moderate-to-rich — Value
- Price-to-book of 66.3x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 2.46 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- RSI at 77 is in overbought territory — Technical
- Price trading above the upper Bollinger Band -- stretched — Technical
- High leverage (debt-to-equity 2.46) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
57/100
Agreement
67%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 68%
of 211 Financial Services peers
Value Analyst
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 232.5% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− P/E of 31.2 is moderate-to-rich
Growth Analyst
bullish
77
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ 3 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution
Technical Analyst
bullish
61
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
− RSI at 77 is in overbought territory
Risk Analyst
bearish
30
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 2.46) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 56.1 to 56.6.
- Committee agreement increased notably from 50% to 67%.
- New bearish signals: 3 appeared.
- New bullish signals: 3 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Technical Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Technical Analyst: stance neutral->bullish; +2 bearish signal(s); +3 bullish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
76.7
Overbought
MACD Histogram
2.555
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$527.74
Resistance
$589.49
Bollinger %B
1.15
Above Upper Band
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$570.18
Above
EMA 21
$568.19
Above
EMA 50
$563.88
Above
EMA 200
$543.20
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
36
Growth
83
Profitability
100
Financial Health
11
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
32.4×
P/B Ratio
92.61×
PEG Ratio
1.43
Dividend Yield
0.59%
52W High
$601.23
52W Low
$464.52
Quality & Growth
ROE
19346.0%
ROA
2763.8%
Gross Margin
10000.0%
Operating Margin
5880.9%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
4.39
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 32.4 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 92.6x; PEG ratio of 1.4 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 193.5%; Return on assets of 27.6%; Net margin of 46.3%; Gross margin of 100.0%; Current ratio of 1.06 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 4.39; Free cash flow per share is positive (18.44); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 2.7%; 3 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (-3.4% -> +9.6% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 21.4%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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