MARA · NASDAQ · STOCK
Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA) Stock Analysis
$9.65
52W $6.66 – $23.45
52/100
$3.68B
-1.0
5.35
Is MARA Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Marathon Digital Holdings, Inc. (MARA) Watch with a composite score of 52/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +8.21 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -11.79 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. News Analyst sees a compelling case — news sentiment is positive (+0.27 across 23 articles, 14d). Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Price-to-book of 1.4x is a discount to asset value — Value
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Weekly trend (downtrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
- News sentiment is positive (+0.27 across 23 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- ROE of only -110.4% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason — Value
- 4 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns — Growth
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- RSI at 17 is in oversold territory (could mean either capitulation or a bounce setup) — Technical
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- Bollinger bandwidth of 39.2% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
52/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 90%
of 211 Financial Services peers
Value Analyst
neutral
55
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ Price-to-book of 1.4x is a discount to asset value
− ROE of only -110.4% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason
Growth Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
− 4 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns
Technical Analyst
neutral
41
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ Weekly trend (downtrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Bollinger bandwidth of 39.2% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
66
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.27 across 23 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 51.4 to 51.8.
- New bearish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- News Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
17.4
Oversold
MACD Histogram
-0.323
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$8.96
Resistance
$11.56
Bollinger %B
0.05
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$10.76
Below
EMA 21
$11.28
Below
EMA 50
$11.47
Below
EMA 200
$11.94
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
96
Growth
44
Profitability
0
Financial Health
29
Cash Flow
15
Valuation
P/E Ratio
-1.0×
P/B Ratio
2.22×
PEG Ratio
0.01
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$23.45
52W Low
$6.66
Quality & Growth
ROE
-3777.6%
ROA
-1799.8%
Gross Margin
-845.9%
Operating Margin
-9961.0%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
1.49
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of -1.0 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 2.2x; PEG ratio of 0.0 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of -37.8%; Return on assets of -18.0%; Net margin of -429.7%; Gross margin of -8.5%; Current ratio of 0.89 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 1.49; Free cash flow per share is negative (-4.10); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 916.0%; 4 consecutive earnings misses; EPS growth accelerating (+26.8% -> +52.6% QoQ); Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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