MC · NYSE · STOCK
Moelis & Company (MC) Stock Analysis
$57.09
52W $51.06 – $78.22
58/100
$4.23B
18.8
1.90
Is MC Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Moelis & Company (MC) Watch with a composite score of 58/100
, based on 6 analysts with 67% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +2.15 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -17.85 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 43.5% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Dividend yield of 5.3% pays you to wait — Value
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.00) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock — Risk
- News sentiment is positive (+0.17 across 6 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 9.7x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- 2 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns — Growth
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- Daily trend (downtrend) conflicts with the weekly trend (uptrend) -- fighting the larger trend — Technical
- Current ratio of 0.88 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
58/100
Agreement
67%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 58%
of 211 Financial Services peers
Value Analyst
neutral
59
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 43.5% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− Price-to-book of 9.7x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
neutral
57
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
− 2 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns
Technical Analyst
neutral
46
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate risk -- no single red flag, but nothing that clearly de-risks the position either
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.00) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
− Current ratio of 0.88 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
63
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.17 across 6 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score strengthened from 54.3 to 57.9.
- Conviction changed from contested to moderate.
- Committee agreement increased notably from 50% to 67%.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 4 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Technical Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- News Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
- Risk Analyst: score 50->58 (+8).
- Technical Analyst: stance bearish->neutral; score 31->46 (+15); +1 bullish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
41.1
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.114
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$51.10
Resistance
$62.05
Bollinger %B
0.35
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$56.95
Above
EMA 21
$58.87
Below
EMA 50
$62.02
Below
EMA 200
$64.97
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
53
Growth
60
Profitability
93
Financial Health
100
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
18.8×
P/B Ratio
8.53×
PEG Ratio
1.54
Dividend Yield
4.55%
52W High
$78.22
52W Low
$51.06
Quality & Growth
ROE
4099.6%
ROA
1285.6%
Gross Margin
6991.4%
Operating Margin
1840.2%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.52
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 18.8 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 8.5x; PEG ratio of 1.5 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 41.0%; Return on assets of 12.9%; Net margin of 14.5%; Gross margin of 69.9%; Current ratio of 20.27 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.52; Free cash flow per share is positive (5.77); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 1.2%; 2 consecutive earnings misses; EPS growth accelerating (-55.8% -> +26.0% QoQ); Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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