MC · NYSE · STOCK
Moelis & Company (MC) Stock Analysis
$59.00
52W $51.06 – $78.22
56/100
$4.51B
20.1
1.84
Is MC Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Moelis & Company (MC) Buy with a composite score of 56/100
, based on 6 analysts with 67% agreement.
Last updated September 17, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +19.38 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -0.62 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case. Technical Analyst remains cautious — rsi at 20 is in oversold territory (could mean either capitulation or a bounce setup). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 43.5% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Dividend yield of 5.3% pays you to wait — Value
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.00) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock — Risk
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 9.7x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- 2 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns — Growth
- RSI at 20 is in oversold territory (could mean either capitulation or a bounce setup) — Technical
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- Price trading below the lower Bollinger Band -- stretched to the downside — Technical
- Current ratio of 0.88 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of September 17, 2026
Overall Committee Score
56/100
Agreement
67%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 76%
of 211 Financial Services peers
Value Analyst
neutral
59
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 43.5% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− Price-to-book of 9.7x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
neutral
57
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
− 2 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns
Technical Analyst
bearish
38
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is deteriorating -- trend and/or momentum are working against this name
− RSI at 20 is in oversold territory (could mean either capitulation or a bounce setup)
Risk Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate risk -- no single red flag, but nothing that clearly de-risks the position either
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.00) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
− Current ratio of 0.88 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2514.55)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 55.6 to 55.6.
Comparing 2026-09-16 to 2026-09-17 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
19.9
Oversold
MACD Histogram
-0.769
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$60.17
Resistance
$62.05
Bollinger %B
-0.15
Below Lower Band
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$64.74
Below
EMA 21
$66.19
Below
EMA 50
$66.71
Below
EMA 200
$66.39
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
49
Growth
60
Profitability
93
Financial Health
100
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
20.1×
P/B Ratio
9.10×
PEG Ratio
1.65
Dividend Yield
4.27%
52W High
$78.22
52W Low
$51.06
Quality & Growth
ROE
4099.6%
ROA
1285.6%
Gross Margin
6991.4%
Operating Margin
1840.2%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.52
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 20.1 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 9.1x; PEG ratio of 1.6 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 41.0%; Return on assets of 12.9%; Net margin of 14.5%; Gross margin of 69.9%; Current ratio of 20.27 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.52; Free cash flow per share is positive (5.77); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 1.2%; 2 consecutive earnings misses; EPS growth accelerating (-55.8% -> +26.0% QoQ); Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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