MKL · NYSE · STOCK
Markel (MKL) Stock Analysis
$1,761.96
52W $1704.17 – $2207.59
62/100
$21.82B
9.6
0.64
Is MKL Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Markel Corporation (MKL) Buy with a composite score of 62/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +12.71 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -7.29 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Risk Analyst sees a compelling case — low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.23) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 9.6 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- Price-to-book of 1.5x is a discount to asset value — Value
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.23) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock — Risk
Bear Case
- 2 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns — Growth
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- Daily trend (downtrend) conflicts with the weekly trend (uptrend) -- fighting the larger trend — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
62/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 36%
of 211 Financial Services peers
Value Analyst
bullish
77
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ P/E of 9.6 is inexpensive for the broad market
Growth Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
− 2 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns
Technical Analyst
neutral
46
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
bullish
80
/ 100 · Low confidence
Risk profile is manageable -- leverage, volatility, and event exposure all look contained
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.23) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 62.3 to 62.3.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Value Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
57.6
Neutral
MACD Histogram
5.527
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$1720.51
Resistance
$2008.54
Bollinger %B
0.58
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$1,746.10
Above
EMA 21
$1,757.15
Above
EMA 50
$1,794.96
Below
EMA 200
$1,883.71
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
99
Growth
65
Profitability
63
Financial Health
79
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
9.6×
P/B Ratio
1.04×
PEG Ratio
1.04
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$2207.59
52W Low
$1704.17
Quality & Growth
ROE
1132.9%
ROA
305.8%
Gross Margin
6226.3%
Operating Margin
1704.3%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.23
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 9.6 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 1.0x; PEG ratio of 1.0 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 11.3%; Return on assets of 3.1%; Net margin of 13.2%; Gross margin of 62.3%; Current ratio of 1.50 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.23; Free cash flow per share is positive (188.59); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 65.2%; 2 consecutive earnings misses; EPS growth accelerating (-61.9% -> -57.0% QoQ); Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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