MTSI · NASDAQ · STOCK
MACOM Technology Solutions (MTSI) Stock Analysis
$330.14
52W $124.74 – $418.90
60/100
$25.18B
103.1
1.76
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is MTSI Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates MACOM Technology Solutions (MTSI) Buy with a composite score of 60/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +15.00 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -5.00 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Growth Analyst sees a compelling case — revenue growing 28.4% yoy -- genuine top-line momentum. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 17.1% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Revenue growing 28.4% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Weekly trend (uptrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
Bear Case
- P/E of 103.9 is expensive by classic value standards — Value
- Price-to-book of 7.1x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Bollinger bandwidth of 43.7% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
60/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 39%
of 287 Technology peers
Value Analyst
neutral
49
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 17.1% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− P/E of 103.9 is expensive by classic value standards
Growth Analyst
bullish
85
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Revenue growing 28.4% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum
Technical Analyst
bullish
69
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Bollinger bandwidth of 43.7% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 60.0 to 60.0.
- New bearish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
64.3
Neutral
MACD Histogram
5.545
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$228.21
Resistance
$330.80
Bollinger %B
0.81
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$318.91
Above
EMA 21
$301.19
Above
EMA 50
$292.60
Above
EMA 200
$269.72
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
33
Growth
78
Profitability
48
Financial Health
100
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
103.1×
P/B Ratio
16.35×
PEG Ratio
0.14
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$418.90
52W Low
$124.74
Quality & Growth
ROE
-408.5%
ROA
-257.7%
Gross Margin
5656.4%
Operating Margin
1811.4%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.24
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 103.1 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 16.4x; PEG ratio of 0.1 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of -4.1%; Return on assets of -2.6%; Net margin of 20.7%; Gross margin of 56.6%; Current ratio of 2.34 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.24; Free cash flow per share is positive (1.56); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 2.0%; EPS growth accelerating (+6.9% -> +28.4% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 55.6%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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