NATL · NYSE · STOCK
NCR Atleos (NATL) Stock Analysis
$45.78
52W $33.31 – $48.50
58/100
$3.38B
17.3
0.57
Is NATL Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates NCR Atleos Corporation (NATL) Watch with a composite score of 58/100
, based on 6 analysts with 67% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +2.36 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -17.64 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Growth Analyst sees a compelling case — eps growing 39.3% yoy. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 49.2% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- EPS growing 39.3% YoY — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 7.0x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 6.88 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- High leverage (debt-to-equity 6.88) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk
- Current ratio of 0.96 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
58/100
Agreement
67%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 55%
of 287 Technology peers
Value Analyst
neutral
50
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 49.2% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− Price-to-book of 7.0x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ EPS growing 39.3% YoY
Technical Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
Risk Analyst
neutral
45
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate risk -- no single red flag, but nothing that clearly de-risks the position either
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 6.88) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 56.0 to 57.6.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Technical Analyst: score 48->58 (+10); +1 bullish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
54.5
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.020
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$43.42
Resistance
$46.23
Bollinger %B
0.52
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$45.61
Above
EMA 21
$45.74
Above
EMA 50
$45.86
Below
EMA 200
$43.53
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
67
Growth
72
Profitability
41
Financial Health
9
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
17.3×
P/B Ratio
7.28×
PEG Ratio
0.37
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$48.50
52W Low
$33.31
Quality & Growth
ROE
4019.9%
ROA
285.8%
Gross Margin
2534.5%
Operating Margin
1145.1%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
6.33
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 17.3 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 7.3x; PEG ratio of 0.4 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 40.2%; Return on assets of 2.9%; Net margin of 4.4%; Gross margin of 25.3%; Current ratio of 1.03 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 6.33; Free cash flow per share is positive (1.46); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 58.9%; EPS growth accelerating (-56.4% -> +143.1% QoQ); Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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