NOV · NYSE · STOCK
NOV (NOV) Stock Analysis
$21.61
52W $12.09 – $21.55
59/100
$7.54B
81.3
0.94
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is NOV Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates NOV Inc. (NOV) Buy with a composite score of 59/100
, based on 5 analysts with 40% agreement.
Last updated August 18, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +15.75 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -4.25 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case — vix regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking. Growth Analyst remains cautious — revenue declining -1.7% yoy -- this is not a growth story right now. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Price-to-book of 0.9x is a discount to asset value — Value
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Weekly trend (uptrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
- VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking — Macro
Bear Case
- P/E of 77.4 is expensive by classic value standards — Value
- ROE of only 1.5% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason — Value
- Revenue declining -1.7% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now — Growth
- EPS declining -78.6% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of August 18, 2026
Overall Committee Score
59/100
Agreement
40%
Analysts
5
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 65%
of 90 Energy peers
Value Analyst
neutral
50
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ Price-to-book of 0.9x is a discount to asset value
− P/E of 77.4 is expensive by classic value standards
Growth Analyst
bearish
40
/ 100 · High confidence
Growth story is weak, decelerating, or inconsistent
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
− Revenue declining -1.7% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now
Technical Analyst
bullish
69
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
Macro Analyst
bullish
80
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking
News Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2963.04)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 59.2 to 59.2.
Comparing 2026-08-17 to 2026-08-18 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
67.0
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.135
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$19.18
Resistance
$21.19
Bollinger %B
0.92
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$20.51
Above
EMA 21
$20.10
Above
EMA 50
$19.82
Above
EMA 200
$18.49
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
67
Growth
51
Profitability
8
Financial Health
100
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
81.3×
P/B Ratio
1.23×
PEG Ratio
-1.03
Dividend Yield
1.99%
52W High
$21.55
52W Low
$12.09
Quality & Growth
ROE
231.3%
ROA
128.4%
Gross Margin
2053.5%
Operating Margin
589.2%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.37
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 81.3 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 1.2x; PEG ratio of -1.0 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 2.3%; Return on assets of 1.3%; Net margin of 1.1%; Gross margin of 20.5%; Current ratio of 2.42 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.37; Free cash flow per share is positive (1.56); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 86.3%; EPS growth accelerating (+350.0% -> +520.0% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 6.9%; Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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