NTRS · NASDAQ · STOCK
Northern Trust (NTRS) Stock Analysis
$168.29
52W $121.12 – $195.78
57/100
$30.78B
14.4
1.25
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is NTRS Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Northern Trust Corporation (NTRS) Buy with a composite score of 57/100
, based on 6 analysts with 67% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +18.36 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -1.64 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Growth Analyst sees a compelling case — eps growing 36.1% yoy. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 13.7 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- ROE of 17.1% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Dividend yield of 3.9% pays you to wait — Value
- EPS growing 36.1% YoY — Growth
- 3 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
Bear Case
- Debt-to-equity of 12.29 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- RSI at 28 is in oversold territory (could mean either capitulation or a bounce setup) — Technical
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- High leverage (debt-to-equity 12.29) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk
- Current ratio of 0.40 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
57/100
Agreement
67%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 68%
of 211 Financial Services peers
Value Analyst
bullish
61
/ 100 · High confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ P/E of 13.7 is inexpensive for the broad market
− Debt-to-equity of 12.29 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case
Growth Analyst
bullish
79
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ EPS growing 36.1% YoY
Technical Analyst
bearish
38
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is deteriorating -- trend and/or momentum are working against this name
− RSI at 28 is in oversold territory (could mean either capitulation or a bounce setup)
Risk Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 12.29) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
64
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.20 across 24 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 56.6 to 56.6.
- New bearish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- News Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
28.5
Oversold
MACD Histogram
-0.326
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$133.51
Resistance
$173.14
Bollinger %B
0.18
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$170.16
Below
EMA 21
$173.78
Below
EMA 50
$177.38
Below
EMA 200
$164.53
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
96
Growth
86
Profitability
63
Financial Health
83
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
14.4×
P/B Ratio
2.31×
PEG Ratio
0.39
Dividend Yield
1.95%
52W High
$195.78
52W Low
$121.12
Quality & Growth
ROE
1340.4%
ROA
98.1%
Gross Margin
5978.1%
Operating Margin
1982.7%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
1.18
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 14.4 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 2.3x; PEG ratio of 0.4 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 13.4%; Return on assets of 1.0%; Net margin of 14.8%; Gross margin of 59.8%; Current ratio of 4.99 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 1.18; Free cash flow per share is positive (0.71); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 7.5%; 3 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (+0.7% -> +9.6% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 39.4%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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