NTRS · NASDAQ · STOCK
Northern Trust (NTRS) Stock Analysis
$191.49
52W $121.12 – $195.78
63/100
$35.02B
16.3
1.26
Is NTRS Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Northern Trust Corporation (NTRS) Buy with a composite score of 63/100
, based on 6 analysts with 67% agreement.
Last updated August 17, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +12.16 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -7.84 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case — vix regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking. Risk Analyst remains cautious — high leverage (debt-to-equity 12.29) amplifies downside in a stress scenario. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 17.1% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- EPS growing 36.1% YoY — Growth
- 3 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
Bear Case
- Debt-to-equity of 12.29 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- RSI at 74 is in overbought territory — Technical
- Weekly RSI at 81 -- overbought on the larger timeframe too — Technical
- High leverage (debt-to-equity 12.29) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk
- Current ratio of 0.40 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of August 17, 2026
Overall Committee Score
63/100
Agreement
67%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 52%
of 209 Financial Services peers
Value Analyst
neutral
56
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 17.1% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− Debt-to-equity of 12.29 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case
Growth Analyst
bullish
79
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ EPS growing 36.1% YoY
Technical Analyst
bullish
61
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
− RSI at 74 is in overbought territory
Risk Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 12.29) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
80
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking
News Analyst
bullish
68
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.33 across 19 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2963.04)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 62.8 to 62.8.
- New bearish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Portfolio Manager: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-08-16 to 2026-08-17 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
73.8
Overbought
MACD Histogram
0.667
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Bollinger %B
0.95
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$187.91
Above
EMA 21
$184.99
Above
EMA 50
$179.51
Above
EMA 200
$157.61
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
92
Growth
86
Profitability
63
Financial Health
83
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
16.3×
P/B Ratio
2.63×
PEG Ratio
0.44
Dividend Yield
1.67%
52W High
$195.78
52W Low
$121.12
Quality & Growth
ROE
1340.4%
ROA
98.1%
Gross Margin
5978.1%
Operating Margin
1982.7%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
1.18
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 16.3 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 2.6x; PEG ratio of 0.4 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 13.4%; Return on assets of 1.0%; Net margin of 14.8%; Gross margin of 59.8%; Current ratio of 4.99 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 1.18; Free cash flow per share is positive (0.71); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 7.5%; 3 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (+0.7% -> +9.6% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 39.4%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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