NVMI · NASDAQ · STOCK
Nova (NVMI) Stock Analysis
$353.00
52W $266.43 – $615.99
44/100
$11.22B
41.4
1.78
Is NVMI Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Nova Ltd. (NVMI) Watch with a composite score of 44/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +16.37 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -3.63 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. News Analyst sees a compelling case — news sentiment is positive (+0.27 across 11 articles, 14d). Growth Analyst remains cautious — revenue declining -1.1% yoy -- this is not a growth story right now. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 20.2% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- News sentiment is positive (+0.27 across 11 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- P/E of 41.4 is expensive by classic value standards — Value
- Price-to-book of 7.6x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Revenue declining -1.1% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now — Growth
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- Trend and market structure agree -- coherent bearish picture — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
44/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 99%
of 287 Technology peers
Value Analyst
neutral
42
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 20.2% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− P/E of 41.4 is expensive by classic value standards
Growth Analyst
bearish
15
/ 100 · Low confidence
Growth story is weak, decelerating, or inconsistent
− Revenue declining -1.1% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now
Technical Analyst
bearish
39
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is deteriorating -- trend and/or momentum are working against this name
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Bollinger bandwidth of 21.3% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
66
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.27 across 11 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score weakened from 46.8 to 43.6.
- Committee agreement increased notably from 33% to 50%.
- New bearish signals: 6 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Technical Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- News Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: stance neutral->bearish; score 58->39 (-20); +4 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
30.8
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.599
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$267.81
Resistance
$357.50
Bollinger %B
0.32
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$372.44
Below
EMA 21
$372.48
Below
EMA 50
$385.71
Below
EMA 200
$410.08
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
1
Growth
64
Profitability
98
Financial Health
80
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
41.4×
P/B Ratio
7.82×
PEG Ratio
4.96
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$615.99
52W Low
$266.43
Quality & Growth
ROE
1966.4%
ROA
1098.2%
Gross Margin
5712.1%
Operating Margin
2897.4%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.55
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 41.4 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 7.8x; PEG ratio of 5.0 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 19.7%; Return on assets of 11.0%; Net margin of 28.8%; Gross margin of 57.1%; Current ratio of 1.55 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.55; Free cash flow per share is positive (6.15); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 2.0%; 2 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth roughly steady (+8.9% -> +7.7% QoQ); Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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