OBDC · NYSE · STOCK
Blue Owl Capital (OBDC) Stock Analysis
$10.10
52W $9.81 – $13.58
50/100
$5.02B
18.1
0.69
Is OBDC Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Blue Owl Capital Corporation (OBDC) Watch with a composite score of 50/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +10.44 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -9.56 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Price-to-book of 0.9x is a discount to asset value — Value
- Dividend yield of 10.7% pays you to wait — Value
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Weekly trend (downtrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
Bear Case
- ROE of only 4.0% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason — Value
- Revenue declining -3.0% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now — Growth
- EPS declining -62.1% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- RSI at 24 is in oversold territory (could mean either capitulation or a bounce setup) — Technical
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
50/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 95%
of 211 Financial Services peers
Value Analyst
neutral
57
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ Price-to-book of 0.9x is a discount to asset value
− ROE of only 4.0% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason
Growth Analyst
bearish
40
/ 100 · High confidence
Growth story is weak, decelerating, or inconsistent
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
− Revenue declining -3.0% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now
Technical Analyst
neutral
41
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ Weekly trend (downtrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Current ratio of 0.28 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
60
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 49.6 to 49.6.
- New bearish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
24.4
Oversold
MACD Histogram
-0.068
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Bollinger %B
0.16
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$10.29
Below
EMA 21
$10.60
Below
EMA 50
$10.88
Below
EMA 200
$11.49
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
96
Growth
54
Profitability
70
Financial Health
41
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
18.1×
P/B Ratio
0.71×
PEG Ratio
-0.29
Dividend Yield
13.65%
52W High
$13.58
52W Low
$9.81
Quality & Growth
ROE
848.2%
ROA
365.1%
Gross Margin
6756.3%
Operating Margin
4868.8%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.87
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 18.1 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 0.7x; PEG ratio of -0.3 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 8.5%; Return on assets of 3.7%; Net margin of 20.4%; Gross margin of 67.6%; Current ratio of 0.18 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.87; Free cash flow per share is positive (2.32); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 4.4%; EPS growth accelerating (-13.9% -> +9.7% QoQ); Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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