OLLI · NASDAQ · STOCK
Ollie's Bargain Outlet (OLLI) Stock Analysis
$75.84
52W $60.29 – $136.41
68/100
$4.58B
16.9
0.50
Is OLLI Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Ollie's Bargain Outlet (OLLI) Buy with a composite score of 68/100
, based on 6 analysts with 83% agreement.
Last updated September 20, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +6.84 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -13.16 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The primary driver is low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.00) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock. Most analysts agree, and no major concerns are blocking a stronger rating.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- EPS growing 29.7% YoY — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.00) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock — Risk
- News sentiment is positive (+0.25 across 8 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- Both daily and weekly trends are bearish — strong multi-timeframe downtrend.
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of September 20, 2026
Overall Committee Score
68/100
Agreement
83%
Analysts
6
Conviction
High
Sector Rank
Top 1%
of 72 Consumer Defensive peers
Value Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
Growth Analyst
bullish
78
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ EPS growing 29.7% YoY
Technical Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
Risk Analyst
bullish
80
/ 100 · Low confidence
Risk profile is manageable -- leverage, volatility, and event exposure all look contained
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.00) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
66
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.25 across 8 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2518.64)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 68.2 to 68.2.
Comparing 2026-09-19 to 2026-09-20 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
54.9
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.092
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$75.79
Resistance
$79.48
Bollinger %B
0.70
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$74.77
Above
EMA 21
$74.61
Above
EMA 50
$74.81
Above
EMA 200
$87.93
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
93
Growth
76
Profitability
61
Financial Health
100
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
16.9×
P/B Ratio
2.40×
PEG Ratio
0.58
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$136.41
52W Low
$60.29
Quality & Growth
ROE
1274.3%
ROA
814.2%
Gross Margin
4013.5%
Operating Margin
1302.6%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.38
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 16.9 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 2.4x; PEG ratio of 0.6 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 12.7%; Return on assets of 8.1%; Net margin of 9.8%; Gross margin of 40.1%; Current ratio of 2.23 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.38; Free cash flow per share is positive (3.71); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 22.5%; 2 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (-34.5% -> +56.0% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 43.4%; Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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