OLLI · NASDAQ · STOCK
Ollie's Bargain Outlet (OLLI) Stock Analysis
$74.92
52W $60.29 – $140.54
64/100
$4.62B
18.7
0.50
Is OLLI Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Ollie's Bargain Outlet (OLLI) Buy with a composite score of 64/100
, based on 6 analysts with 83% agreement.
Last updated August 18, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +10.66 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -9.34 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The primary driver is vix regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking. The main limiting factor is growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level. The committee is constructive but not yet at full conviction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Weekly trend (sideways) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
- Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.00) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock — Risk
- VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking — Macro
- News sentiment is positive (+0.43 across 7 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- Bollinger bandwidth of 29.9% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of August 18, 2026
Overall Committee Score
64/100
Agreement
83%
Analysts
6
Conviction
High
Sector Rank
Top 19%
of 72 Consumer Defensive peers
Value Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
Growth Analyst
neutral
50
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
− Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level
Technical Analyst
bullish
61
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
Risk Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Risk profile is manageable -- leverage, volatility, and event exposure all look contained
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.00) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
− Bollinger bandwidth of 29.9% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
80
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking
News Analyst
bullish
71
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.43 across 7 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2963.04)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 64.3 to 64.3.
Comparing 2026-08-17 to 2026-08-18 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
53.1
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.589
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Sideways
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$75.79
Resistance
$79.48
Bollinger %B
0.65
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$77.11
Below
EMA 21
$74.75
Above
EMA 50
$75.12
Below
EMA 200
$91.53
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
90
Growth
49
Profitability
60
Financial Health
100
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
18.7×
P/B Ratio
2.46×
PEG Ratio
0.78
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$140.54
52W Low
$60.29
Quality & Growth
ROE
1274.3%
ROA
814.2%
Gross Margin
3959.4%
Operating Margin
1230.5%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.38
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 18.7 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 2.5x; PEG ratio of 0.8 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 12.7%; Return on assets of 8.1%; Net margin of 9.1%; Gross margin of 39.6%; Current ratio of 2.32 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.38; Free cash flow per share is positive (3.49); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 2.3%; EPS growth decelerating (+85.3% -> -34.5% QoQ); Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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