ADM · NYSE · STOCK
Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) Stock Analysis
$80.24
52W $55.58 – $88.46
70/100
$38.70B
22.0
0.61
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is ADM Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) Buy with a composite score of 70/100
, based on 4 analysts with 100% agreement.
Last updated August 23, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +4.94 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -15.06 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The primary driver is 5 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution. The main limiting factor is sector concentration is already high (hhi 3069.37). The committee is constructive but not yet at full conviction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- 5 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Trend and market structure agree -- coherent bullish picture — Technical
- Weekly trend (uptrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
Bear Case
- Bearish candlestick pattern(s) detected: Bearish Engulfing.
- Risk/reward is unfavorable: 7.7% downside vs 3.2% upside.
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of August 23, 2026
Overall Committee Score
70/100
Agreement
100%
Analysts
4
Conviction
Unanimous
Sector Rank
Top 1%
of 72 Consumer Defensive peers
Growth Analyst
bullish
82
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ 5 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution
Technical Analyst
bullish
69
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
64
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.20 across 17 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 3069.37)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score strengthened from 66.8 to 70.1.
- Bullish support removed: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) abstained: Value Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Growth Analyst: score 66->82 (+16).
- Value Analyst abstained (was bullish at 70).
Comparing 2026-08-22 to 2026-08-23 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
47.0
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.105
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$74.06
Resistance
$82.83
Bollinger %B
0.51
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$80.74
Below
EMA 21
$80.67
Below
EMA 50
$80.02
Above
EMA 200
$72.61
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
90
Growth
95
Profitability
14
Financial Health
75
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
22.0×
P/B Ratio
1.65×
PEG Ratio
0.37
Dividend Yield
2.58%
52W High
$88.46
52W Low
$55.58
Quality & Growth
ROE
474.2%
ROA
205.8%
Gross Margin
687.0%
Operating Margin
246.2%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.40
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 22.0 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 1.7x; PEG ratio of 0.4 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 4.7%; Return on assets of 2.1%; Net margin of 2.2%; Gross margin of 6.9%; Current ratio of 1.39 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.40; Free cash flow per share is positive (3.46); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 26.8%; 5 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (-18.4% -> +159.2% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 97.8%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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