ADM · NYSE · STOCK
Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) Stock Analysis
$79.88
52W $55.58 – $88.75
63/100
$38.50B
21.9
0.63
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is ADM Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) Buy with a composite score of 63/100
, based on 5 analysts with 80% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +12.28 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -7.72 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Value Analyst sees a compelling case — price-to-book of 1.2x is a discount to asset value. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Price-to-book of 1.2x is a discount to asset value — Value
- EPS growing 60.3% YoY — Growth
- 5 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- News sentiment is positive (+0.20 across 26 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- Revenue declining -0.8% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now — Growth
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
63/100
Agreement
80%
Analysts
5
Conviction
High
Sector Rank
Top 12%
of 72 Consumer Defensive peers
Value Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ Price-to-book of 1.2x is a discount to asset value
Growth Analyst
bullish
66
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ EPS growing 60.3% YoY
− Revenue declining -0.8% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now
Technical Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
64
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.20 across 26 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 62.7 to 62.7.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- News Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
38.3
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.150
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$75.93
Resistance
$82.83
Bollinger %B
0.25
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$81.28
Below
EMA 21
$81.90
Below
EMA 50
$81.83
Below
EMA 200
$75.51
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
90
Growth
95
Profitability
14
Financial Health
75
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
21.9×
P/B Ratio
1.64×
PEG Ratio
0.37
Dividend Yield
2.59%
52W High
$88.75
52W Low
$55.58
Quality & Growth
ROE
474.2%
ROA
205.8%
Gross Margin
687.0%
Operating Margin
246.2%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.40
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 21.9 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 1.6x; PEG ratio of 0.4 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 4.7%; Return on assets of 2.1%; Net margin of 2.2%; Gross margin of 6.9%; Current ratio of 1.39 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.40; Free cash flow per share is positive (3.46); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 26.8%; 5 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (-18.4% -> +159.2% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 97.8%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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