TAL · NYSE · STOCK
TAL Education Group (TAL) Stock Analysis
$12.86
52W $8.88 – $13.37
69/100
$7.83B
2.6
0.07
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is TAL Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates TAL Education Group (TAL) Buy with a composite score of 69/100
, based on 6 analysts with 83% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +6.04 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -13.96 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Risk Analyst sees a compelling case — low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.00) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 6.6 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- ROE of 24.5% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Revenue growing 32.4% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum — Growth
- EPS growing 846.5% YoY — Growth
- 4 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
Bear Case
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- Price trading above the upper Bollinger Band -- stretched — Technical
- Daily trend (uptrend) conflicts with the weekly trend (downtrend) -- fighting the larger trend — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
69/100
Agreement
83%
Analysts
6
Conviction
High
Sector Rank
Top 0%
of 72 Consumer Defensive peers
Value Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · High confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ P/E of 6.6 is inexpensive for the broad market
Growth Analyst
bullish
71
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Revenue growing 32.4% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum
− Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level
Technical Analyst
neutral
59
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
− Price trading above the upper Bollinger Band -- stretched
Risk Analyst
bullish
75
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Risk profile is manageable -- leverage, volatility, and event exposure all look contained
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.00) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
74
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.50 across 8 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 69.9 to 69.0.
- New bearish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 2 appeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- News Analyst: score 79->74 (-5); +1 bullish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
69.5
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.077
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$10.55
Resistance
$13.19
Bollinger %B
1.04
Above Upper Band
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$12.43
Above
EMA 21
$12.18
Above
EMA 50
$11.81
Above
EMA 200
$11.25
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
100
Growth
71
Profitability
88
Financial Health
87
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
2.6×
P/B Ratio
0.58×
PEG Ratio
0.01
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$13.37
52W Low
$8.88
Quality & Growth
ROE
1411.4%
ROA
897.4%
Gross Margin
5601.3%
Operating Margin
1249.0%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.10
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 2.6 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 0.6x; PEG ratio of 0.0 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 14.1%; Return on assets of 9.0%; Net margin of 28.4%; Gross margin of 56.0%; Current ratio of 1.69 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.10; Free cash flow per share is positive (3.46); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 117.1%; 4 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth decelerating (+80.0% -> +66.7% QoQ); Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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