OWL · NYSE · STOCK
Blue Owl Capital (OWL) Stock Analysis
$9.47
52W $7.95 – $17.33
53/100
$14.83B
79.8
1.21
Is OWL Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Blue Owl Capital (OWL) Watch with a composite score of 53/100
, based on 6 analysts with 33% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +6.74 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -13.26 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Growth Analyst sees a compelling case — eps growing 28.7% yoy. Value Analyst remains cautious — p/e of 182.9 is expensive by classic value standards. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Dividend yield of 4.1% pays you to wait — Value
- EPS growing 28.7% YoY — Growth
- 3 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Weekly trend (downtrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
Bear Case
- P/E of 182.9 is expensive by classic value standards — Value
- Price-to-book of 10.6x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- ROE of only 3.8% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 1.51 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- High leverage (debt-to-equity 1.51) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
53/100
Agreement
33%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 85%
of 211 Financial Services peers
Value Analyst
bearish
29
/ 100 · High confidence
Multiples don't clear a genuine value bar here, or cheapness looks justified by weak fundamentals
+ Dividend yield of 4.1% pays you to wait
− P/E of 182.9 is expensive by classic value standards
Growth Analyst
bullish
79
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ EPS growing 28.7% YoY
Technical Analyst
neutral
56
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
bearish
33
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 1.51) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 53.3 to 53.3.
- New bearish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
53.5
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.049
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$8.31
Resistance
$10.91
Bollinger %B
0.48
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$9.27
Above
EMA 21
$9.63
Below
EMA 50
$10.11
Below
EMA 200
$11.37
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
24
Growth
68
Profitability
34
Financial Health
8
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
79.8×
P/B Ratio
3.27×
PEG Ratio
3.33
Dividend Yield
9.59%
52W High
$17.33
52W Low
$7.95
Quality & Growth
ROE
357.5%
ROA
63.2%
Gross Margin
6106.6%
Operating Margin
2260.2%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
2.18
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 79.8 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 3.3x; PEG ratio of 3.3 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 3.6%; Return on assets of 0.6%; Net margin of 2.7%; Gross margin of 61.1%; Current ratio of 0.32 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 2.18; Free cash flow per share is positive (1.92); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 0.5%; 3 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (-20.8% -> +15.8% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 4.8%; Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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