PAYC · NYSE · STOCK
Paycom Software, Inc.
$212.31
52W $104.90 – $234.60
57/100
$9.57B
22.5
0.72
Is PAYC Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Paycom Software, Inc. (PAYC) Watch with a composite score of 57/100
, based on 6 analysts with 67% agreement.
Last updated August 11, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +2.92 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -17.08 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case — vix regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking. Growth Analyst remains cautious. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 31.0% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.00) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock — Risk
- VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking — Macro
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 5.2x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- RSI at 84 is in overbought territory — Technical
- Daily trend (uptrend) conflicts with the weekly trend (downtrend) -- fighting the larger trend — Technical
- Weekly RSI at 86 -- overbought on the larger timeframe too — Technical
- Bollinger bandwidth of 63.4% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of August 11, 2026
Overall Committee Score
57/100
Agreement
67%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 69%
of 284 Technology peers
Value Analyst
neutral
59
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 31.0% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− Price-to-book of 5.2x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
bearish
40
/ 100 · Low confidence
Growth story is weak, decelerating, or inconsistent
Technical Analyst
neutral
51
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
− RSI at 84 is in overbought territory
Risk Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate risk -- no single red flag, but nothing that clearly de-risks the position either
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.00) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
− Bollinger bandwidth of 63.4% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
78
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking
News Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
neutral
55
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− 2 existing position pair(s) are highly correlated already
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
84.0
Overbought
MACD Histogram
5.890
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$186.14
Resistance
$248.47
Bollinger %B
0.93
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$193.75
Above
EMA 21
$173.68
Above
EMA 50
$155.38
Above
EMA 200
$153.65
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
57
Profitability
90
Financial Health
31
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
22.5×
P/B Ratio
17.01×
PEG Ratio
0.83
Dividend Yield
0.71%
52W High
$234.60
52W Low
$104.90
Quality & Growth
ROE
2618.5%
ROA
596.7%
Gross Margin
8011.4%
Operating Margin
3029.8%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
1.72
AI Fundamental Assessment
[reduced confidence: limited earnings history] P/E ratio of 22.5 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 17.0x; PEG ratio of 0.8 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 26.2%; Return on assets of 6.0%; Net margin of 22.8%; Gross margin of 80.1%; Current ratio of 1.07 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 1.72; Free cash flow per share is positive (16.47); Earnings-history trend unavailable; growth based on TTM year-over-year only.
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