PAYC · NYSE · STOCK
Paycom Software (PAYC) Stock Analysis
$232.42
52W $104.90 – $244.98
63/100
$10.47B
24.6
0.83
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is PAYC Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Paycom Software, Inc. (PAYC) Buy with a composite score of 63/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +11.87 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -8.13 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Risk Analyst sees a compelling case — low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.00) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 40.4% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- EPS growing 27.1% YoY — Growth
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Trend and market structure agree -- coherent bullish picture — Technical
- Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.00) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock — Risk
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 5.2x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- Price trading above the upper Bollinger Band -- stretched — Technical
- Daily trend (uptrend) conflicts with the weekly trend (downtrend) -- fighting the larger trend — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
63/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 15%
of 287 Technology peers
Value Analyst
neutral
59
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 40.4% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− Price-to-book of 5.2x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
neutral
53
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ EPS growing 27.1% YoY
− Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level
Technical Analyst
neutral
59
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
− Price trading above the upper Bollinger Band -- stretched
Risk Analyst
bullish
80
/ 100 · Low confidence
Risk profile is manageable -- leverage, volatility, and event exposure all look contained
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.00) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
63
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.17 across 12 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 62.0 to 63.1.
- New bearish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- News Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: score 51->59 (+8); +1 bearish signal(s); +1 bullish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
66.2
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.137
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$213.78
Resistance
$243.32
Bollinger %B
1.03
Above Upper Band
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$225.99
Above
EMA 21
$224.06
Above
EMA 50
$212.20
Above
EMA 200
$178.27
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
54
Growth
43
Profitability
90
Financial Health
31
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
24.6×
P/B Ratio
18.61×
PEG Ratio
0.91
Dividend Yield
0.65%
52W High
$244.98
52W Low
$104.90
Quality & Growth
ROE
2618.5%
ROA
596.7%
Gross Margin
8136.0%
Operating Margin
3029.1%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
1.72
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 24.6 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 18.6x; PEG ratio of 0.9 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 26.2%; Return on assets of 6.0%; Net margin of 22.8%; Gross margin of 81.4%; Current ratio of 1.07 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 1.72; Free cash flow per share is positive (16.47); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 14.7%; 2 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth decelerating (+28.6% -> -11.7% QoQ); Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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