PCTY · NASDAQ · STOCK
Paylocity (PCTY) Stock Analysis
$166.36
52W $92.99 – $166.47
59/100
$8.82B
33.3
0.45
Is PCTY Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Paylocity (PCTY) Buy with a composite score of 59/100
, based on 6 analysts with 67% agreement.
Last updated October 16, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +16.32 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -3.68 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2739.42). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 23.4% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- 5 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.07) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock — Risk
Bear Case
- P/E of 32.7 is moderate-to-rich — Value
- Price-to-book of 4.6x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- RSI at 89 is in overbought territory — Technical
- Price trading above the upper Bollinger Band -- stretched — Technical
- Weekly RSI at 77 -- overbought on the larger timeframe too — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 16, 2026
Overall Committee Score
59/100
Agreement
67%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 43%
of 287 Technology peers
Value Analyst
neutral
54
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 23.4% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− P/E of 32.7 is moderate-to-rich
Growth Analyst
bullish
60
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ 5 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution
− Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level
Technical Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
− RSI at 89 is in overbought territory
Risk Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate risk -- no single red flag, but nothing that clearly de-risks the position either
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.07) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
− Bollinger bandwidth of 18.4% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2739.42)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score weakened from 62.4 to 58.7.
- Conviction changed from contested to moderate.
- Committee agreement increased notably from 50% to 67%.
- New bearish signals: 5 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 3 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Risk Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Portfolio Manager: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Risk Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 80->58 (-22); +1 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-15 to 2026-10-16 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
88.8
Overbought
MACD Histogram
2.031
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Sideways
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$166.05
Resistance
$168.40
Bollinger %B
1.15
Above Upper Band
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$155.76
Above
EMA 21
$151.25
Above
EMA 50
$145.96
Above
EMA 200
$136.08
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
37
Growth
62
Profitability
83
Financial Health
62
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
33.3×
P/B Ratio
7.36×
PEG Ratio
1.49
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$166.47
52W Low
$92.99
Quality & Growth
ROE
2208.4%
ROA
552.2%
Gross Margin
6918.6%
Operating Margin
2179.1%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.10
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 33.3 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 7.4x; PEG ratio of 1.5 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 22.1%; Return on assets of 5.5%; Net margin of 15.2%; Gross margin of 69.2%; Current ratio of 1.09 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.10; Free cash flow per share is positive (8.28); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 11.7%; 5 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth decelerating (+56.2% -> -36.3% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 17.9%; Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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