PEGA · NASDAQ · STOCK
Pegasystems (PEGA) Stock Analysis
$31.87
52W $25.10 – $68.10
63/100
$5.31B
17.0
0.86
Is PEGA Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Pegasystems (PEGA) Buy with a composite score of 63/100
, based on 6 analysts with 67% agreement.
Last updated August 17, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +11.96 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -8.04 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
Positive signals support the current rating — vix regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking. The committee sees sufficient evidence to maintain the constructive view.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 48.9% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- EPS growing 59.6% YoY — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.00) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock — Risk
- VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking — Macro
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 12.9x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- 2 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns — Growth
- Bollinger bandwidth of 29.3% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of August 17, 2026
Overall Committee Score
63/100
Agreement
67%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 29%
of 284 Technology peers
Value Analyst
neutral
59
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 48.9% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− Price-to-book of 12.9x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ EPS growing 59.6% YoY
− 2 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns
Technical Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
Risk Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate risk -- no single red flag, but nothing that clearly de-risks the position either
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.00) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
− Bollinger bandwidth of 29.3% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
80
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking
News Analyst
bullish
66
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.27 across 16 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2963.04)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 63.4 to 63.0.
- New bearish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- News Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-08-16 to 2026-08-17 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
54.1
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.310
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$32.17
Resistance
$34.62
Bollinger %B
0.68
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$32.17
Below
EMA 21
$31.53
Above
EMA 50
$32.12
Below
EMA 200
$39.80
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
64
Growth
61
Profitability
98
Financial Health
61
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
17.0×
P/B Ratio
9.64×
PEG Ratio
0.36
Dividend Yield
0.37%
52W High
$68.10
52W Low
$25.10
Quality & Growth
ROE
4996.8%
ROA
2411.0%
Gross Margin
7557.3%
Operating Margin
994.1%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.13
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 17.0 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 9.6x; PEG ratio of 0.4 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 50.0%; Return on assets of 24.1%; Net margin of 18.7%; Gross margin of 75.6%; Current ratio of 1.06 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.13; Free cash flow per share is positive (3.01); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 21.0%; 2 consecutive earnings misses; EPS growth accelerating (-39.5% -> -23.9% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 25.0%; Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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