PEGA · NASDAQ · STOCK
Pegasystems (PEGA) Stock Analysis
$35.67
52W $25.10 – $68.10
60/100
$5.86B
18.8
0.89
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is PEGA Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Pegasystems (PEGA) Buy with a composite score of 60/100
, based on 6 analysts with 67% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +15.36 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -4.64 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 48.9% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- EPS growing 59.6% YoY — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.00) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock — Risk
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 12.9x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- 2 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns — Growth
- Bollinger bandwidth of 16.7% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
60/100
Agreement
67%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 42%
of 287 Technology peers
Value Analyst
neutral
59
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 48.9% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− Price-to-book of 12.9x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ EPS growing 59.6% YoY
− 2 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns
Technical Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
Risk Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate risk -- no single red flag, but nothing that clearly de-risks the position either
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.00) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
− Bollinger bandwidth of 16.7% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
61
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 57.9 to 59.6.
- New bearish signals: 1 appeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: score 48->58 (+10); +1 bullish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
63.5
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.065
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$34.35
Resistance
$36.37
Bollinger %B
0.62
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$34.77
Above
EMA 21
$34.76
Above
EMA 50
$34.40
Above
EMA 200
$38.27
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
62
Growth
61
Profitability
98
Financial Health
61
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
18.8×
P/B Ratio
10.64×
PEG Ratio
0.40
Dividend Yield
0.57%
52W High
$68.10
52W Low
$25.10
Quality & Growth
ROE
4996.8%
ROA
2411.0%
Gross Margin
7557.3%
Operating Margin
994.1%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.13
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 18.8 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 10.6x; PEG ratio of 0.4 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 50.0%; Return on assets of 24.1%; Net margin of 18.7%; Gross margin of 75.6%; Current ratio of 1.06 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.13; Free cash flow per share is positive (3.01); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 21.8%; 2 consecutive earnings misses; EPS growth accelerating (-39.5% -> -23.9% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 25.0%; Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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