PGY · NASDAQ · STOCK
Pagaya Technologies (PGY) Stock Analysis
$18.22
52W $10.40 – $31.06
56/100
$1.52B
12.1
5.52
Is PGY Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) Watch with a composite score of 56/100
, based on 6 analysts with 67% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +3.82 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -16.18 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
Supporting evidence favours the bullish case. The main limiting factor is sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). The committee is constructive but not yet at full conviction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 12.0 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- ROE of 23.5% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- 4 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
Bear Case
- Debt-to-equity of 1.62 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- High leverage (debt-to-equity 1.62) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk
- Bollinger bandwidth of 33.1% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
56/100
Agreement
67%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 67%
of 287 Technology peers
Value Analyst
bullish
61
/ 100 · High confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ P/E of 12.0 is inexpensive for the broad market
− Debt-to-equity of 1.62 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case
Growth Analyst
bullish
60
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ 4 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution
− Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level
Technical Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
Risk Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 1.62) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
60
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 54.9 to 56.2.
- New bearish signals: 1 appeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: score 48->58 (+10); +1 bullish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
44.3
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.004
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$15.73
Resistance
$19.34
Bollinger %B
0.38
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$18.21
Above
EMA 21
$18.88
Below
EMA 50
$19.27
Below
EMA 200
$18.49
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
95
Growth
56
Profitability
59
Financial Health
74
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
12.1×
P/B Ratio
2.55×
PEG Ratio
0.03
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$31.06
52W Low
$10.40
Quality & Growth
ROE
1695.5%
ROA
526.5%
Gross Margin
4063.6%
Operating Margin
2120.4%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
1.53
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 12.1 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 2.6x; PEG ratio of 0.0 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 17.0%; Return on assets of 5.3%; Net margin of 9.6%; Gross margin of 40.6%; Current ratio of 11.51 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 1.53; Free cash flow per share is positive (3.03); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 47.5%; 4 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth decelerating (+102.8% -> -32.9% QoQ); Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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