PGY · NASDAQ · STOCK
Pagaya Technologies (PGY) Stock Analysis
$17.07
52W $10.40 – $31.06
57/100
$1.49B
11.9
5.52
Is PGY Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) Watch with a composite score of 57/100
, based on 6 analysts with 67% agreement.
Last updated October 14, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +3.33 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -16.67 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
Supporting evidence favours the bullish case. The main limiting factor is high leverage (debt-to-equity 1.62) amplifies downside in a stress scenario. The committee is constructive but not yet at full conviction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 11.7 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- ROE of 23.5% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- 4 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- News sentiment is positive (+0.17 across 12 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- Debt-to-equity of 1.62 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- High leverage (debt-to-equity 1.62) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk
- Bollinger bandwidth of 30.3% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 14, 2026
Overall Committee Score
57/100
Agreement
67%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 63%
of 287 Technology peers
Value Analyst
bullish
61
/ 100 · High confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ P/E of 11.7 is inexpensive for the broad market
− Debt-to-equity of 1.62 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case
Growth Analyst
bullish
60
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ 4 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution
− Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level
Technical Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
Risk Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 1.62) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
63
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.17 across 12 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− 2 existing position pair(s) are highly correlated already
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 57.3 to 56.7.
- Conviction changed from contested to moderate.
- New bearish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 3 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 3 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: score 80->65 (-15).
- News Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: score 30->35 (+5).
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: score 48->58 (+10); +1 bullish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-13 to 2026-10-14 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
30.5
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.037
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$15.73
Resistance
$17.14
Bollinger %B
0.19
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$17.76
Below
EMA 21
$18.49
Below
EMA 50
$19.05
Below
EMA 200
$18.45
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
95
Growth
56
Profitability
59
Financial Health
74
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
11.9×
P/B Ratio
2.49×
PEG Ratio
0.03
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$31.06
52W Low
$10.40
Quality & Growth
ROE
1695.5%
ROA
526.5%
Gross Margin
4063.6%
Operating Margin
2120.4%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
1.53
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 11.9 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 2.5x; PEG ratio of 0.0 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 17.0%; Return on assets of 5.3%; Net margin of 9.6%; Gross margin of 40.6%; Current ratio of 11.51 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 1.53; Free cash flow per share is positive (3.03); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 47.5%; 4 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth decelerating (+102.8% -> -32.9% QoQ); Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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