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PHM · NYSE · STOCK

PulteGroup (PHM) Stock Analysis

Consumer Cyclical Updated September 21, 2026
$118.97
52W $108.49 – $144.50
56/100
$22.63B
11.9
1.20
AI Committee Verdict
Buy
56/100
Conviction: Contested · 50% agreement · 6 analysts
+12.0%
-0.7%
16.27:1
Contested

Is PHM Bullish or Bearish?

Bullish. Innellis AI committee rates PulteGroup (PHM) Buy with a composite score of 56/100 , based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement. Last updated September 21, 2026.

What Would Change This View

Upgrade to Strong Buy
Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +19.25 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
Downgrade to Watch
Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -0.75 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.

Executive Summary

The committee is genuinely divided. Value Analyst sees a compelling case — p/e of 11.5 is inexpensive for the broad market. Growth Analyst remains cautious — revenue declining -7.3% yoy -- this is not a growth story right now. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.

Bull & Bear Case

Bull Case
  • P/E of 11.5 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
  • Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
  • Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.17) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock — Risk
Bear Case
  • Revenue declining -7.3% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now — Growth
  • EPS declining -26.8% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
  • MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
  • Bollinger bandwidth of 15.9% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)

AI Investment Committee

Committee Consensus As of September 21, 2026
Overall Committee Score
56/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 45%
of 178 Consumer Cyclical peers
Value Analyst bullish
68 / 100 · Moderate confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ P/E of 11.5 is inexpensive for the broad market
Growth Analyst bearish
40 / 100 · High confidence
Growth story is weak, decelerating, or inconsistent
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
− Revenue declining -7.3% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now
Technical Analyst neutral
48 / 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Risk Analyst neutral
58 / 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate risk -- no single red flag, but nothing that clearly de-risks the position either
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.17) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
− Bollinger bandwidth of 15.9% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst bullish
65 / 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst neutral
55 / 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager neutral
45 / 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2518.64)
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Investment Thesis Evolution

Committee score moved marginally from 55.8 to 55.8.

Comparing 2026-09-20 to 2026-09-21 (1 day apart).

Technical Analysis

RSI (14)
34.0
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.465
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$116.36
Resistance
$131.34
Bollinger %B
0.20
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$119.23 Below
EMA 21
$122.13 Below
EMA 50
$124.64 Below
EMA 200
$124.15 Below

Fundamental Analysis

Valuation
99
Growth
50
Profitability
64
Financial Health
100
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio 11.9×
P/B Ratio 1.73×
PEG Ratio -0.44
Dividend Yield 0.89%
52W High $144.50
52W Low $108.49
Quality & Growth
ROE 1708.6%
ROA 1229.3%
Gross Margin 2446.0%
Operating Margin 1461.1%
Revenue Growth YoY
Debt / Equity 0.18
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 11.9 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 1.7x; PEG ratio of -0.4 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 17.1%; Return on assets of 12.3%; Net margin of 11.6%; Gross margin of 24.5%; Current ratio of 5.27 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.18; Free cash flow per share is positive (7.89); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 3.9%; EPS growth accelerating (-30.1% -> +38.5% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of -18.1%; Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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