PHM · NYSE · STOCK
PulteGroup (PHM) Stock Analysis
$124.42
52W $108.49 – $144.50
63/100
$24.02B
12.7
1.20
Is PHM Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates PulteGroup (PHM) Buy with a composite score of 63/100
, based on 6 analysts with 67% agreement.
Last updated September 06, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +11.92 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -8.08 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Risk Analyst sees a compelling case — low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.17) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock. Growth Analyst remains cautious — revenue declining -7.3% yoy -- this is not a growth story right now. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 12.2 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.17) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock — Risk
- VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking — Macro
Bear Case
- Revenue declining -7.3% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now — Growth
- EPS declining -26.8% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of September 06, 2026
Overall Committee Score
63/100
Agreement
67%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 28%
of 178 Consumer Cyclical peers
Value Analyst
bullish
68
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ P/E of 12.2 is inexpensive for the broad market
Growth Analyst
bearish
40
/ 100 · High confidence
Growth story is weak, decelerating, or inconsistent
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
− Revenue declining -7.3% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now
Technical Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Risk Analyst
bullish
80
/ 100 · Low confidence
Risk profile is manageable -- leverage, volatility, and event exposure all look contained
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.17) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
Macro Analyst
bullish
80
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking
News Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2704.43)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 63.1 to 63.1.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Value Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-09-05 to 2026-09-06 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
39.2
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.684
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$121.77
Resistance
$131.34
Bollinger %B
0.16
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$125.80
Below
EMA 21
$127.32
Below
EMA 50
$127.36
Below
EMA 200
$124.69
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
98
Growth
50
Profitability
64
Financial Health
100
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
12.7×
P/B Ratio
1.83×
PEG Ratio
-0.47
Dividend Yield
0.80%
52W High
$144.50
52W Low
$108.49
Quality & Growth
ROE
1708.6%
ROA
1229.3%
Gross Margin
2446.0%
Operating Margin
1461.1%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.18
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 12.7 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 1.8x; PEG ratio of -0.5 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 17.1%; Return on assets of 12.3%; Net margin of 11.6%; Gross margin of 24.5%; Current ratio of 5.27 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.18; Free cash flow per share is positive (7.89); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 3.9%; EPS growth accelerating (-30.1% -> +38.5% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of -18.1%; Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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