RIVN · NASDAQ · STOCK
Rivian Automotive (RIVN) Stock Analysis
$13.96
52W $12.39 – $22.69
53/100
$16.95B
-5.4
1.62
Is RIVN Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Rivian Automotive (RIVN) Watch with a composite score of 53/100
, based on 5 analysts with 40% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +7.48 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -12.52 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Growth Analyst sees a compelling case — 4 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution. Value Analyst remains cautious — price-to-book of 5.3x prices in significant intangible value. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- 4 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 5.3x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- ROE of only -67.6% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason — Value
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- RSI at 26 is in oversold territory (could mean either capitulation or a bounce setup) — Technical
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- Daily trend (downtrend) conflicts with the weekly trend (uptrend) -- fighting the larger trend — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
53/100
Agreement
40%
Analysts
5
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 75%
of 178 Consumer Cyclical peers
Value Analyst
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Multiples don't clear a genuine value bar here, or cheapness looks justified by weak fundamentals
− Price-to-book of 5.3x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
bullish
77
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ 4 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution
Technical Analyst
bearish
31
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is deteriorating -- trend and/or momentum are working against this name
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
60
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 54.0 to 52.5.
- New bearish signals: 1 appeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Technical Analyst: score 39->31 (-8); +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
25.8
Oversold
MACD Histogram
-0.072
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$13.58
Resistance
$14.51
Bollinger %B
0.00
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$14.49
Below
EMA 21
$14.91
Below
EMA 50
$15.42
Below
EMA 200
$15.65
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
90
Growth
95
Profitability
0
Financial Health
86
Cash Flow
15
Valuation
P/E Ratio
-5.4×
P/B Ratio
3.50×
PEG Ratio
-0.24
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$22.69
52W Low
$12.39
Quality & Growth
ROE
-7985.1%
ROA
-2452.9%
Gross Margin
751.3%
Operating Margin
-6005.4%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
1.04
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of -5.4 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 3.5x; PEG ratio of -0.2 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of -79.9%; Return on assets of -24.5%; Net margin of -55.0%; Gross margin of 7.5%; Current ratio of 2.10 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 1.04; Free cash flow per share is negative (-2.71); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 28.5%; 4 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (-5.6% -> +19.3% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 42.5%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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