NIO · NYSE · STOCK
NIO (NIO) Stock Analysis
$4.37
52W $4.34 – $8.02
50/100
$10.82B
-7.4
0.93
Is NIO Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates NIO Inc. (NIO) Watch with a composite score of 50/100
, based on 6 analysts with 33% agreement.
Last updated August 25, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +10.07 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -9.93 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Growth Analyst sees a compelling case — revenue growing 48.8% yoy -- genuine top-line momentum. Value Analyst remains cautious — price-to-book of 17.9x prices in significant intangible value. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Revenue growing 48.8% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum — Growth
- 4 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 17.9x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- ROE of only -99.5% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 4.57 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- Trend and market structure agree -- coherent bearish picture — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of August 25, 2026
Overall Committee Score
50/100
Agreement
33%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 89%
of 178 Consumer Cyclical peers
Value Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Multiples don't clear a genuine value bar here, or cheapness looks justified by weak fundamentals
− Price-to-book of 17.9x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
bullish
67
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Revenue growing 48.8% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum
− Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level
Technical Analyst
neutral
46
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 4.57) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 3063.01)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 49.9 to 49.9.
Comparing 2026-08-24 to 2026-08-25 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
32.8
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.004
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$4.01
Resistance
$4.43
Bollinger %B
-0.02
Below Lower Band
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$4.54
Below
EMA 21
$4.63
Below
EMA 50
$4.85
Below
EMA 200
$5.24
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
67
Growth
69
Profitability
0
Financial Health
9
Cash Flow
15
Valuation
P/E Ratio
-7.4×
P/B Ratio
16.75×
PEG Ratio
-0.07
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$8.02
52W Low
$4.34
Quality & Growth
ROE
-34966.0%
ROA
-1169.1%
Gross Margin
1569.2%
Operating Margin
-819.4%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
6.12
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of -7.4 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 16.8x; PEG ratio of -0.1 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of -349.7%; Return on assets of -11.7%; Net margin of -9.0%; Gross margin of 15.7%; Current ratio of 1.01 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 6.12; Free cash flow per share is negative (-5.60); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 105.6%; 4 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth decelerating (+125.4% -> -93.1% QoQ); Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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