LI · NASDAQ · STOCK
Li Auto (LI) Stock Analysis
$12.42
52W $11.65 – $27.10
52/100
$12.38B
-46.9
0.55
Is LI Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Li Auto Inc. (LI) Watch with a composite score of 52/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated August 18, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +7.85 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -12.15 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case — vix regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking. Risk Analyst remains cautious — bollinger bandwidth of 15.8% signals elevated volatility. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Weekly trend (downtrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
- VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking — Macro
Bear Case
- ROE of only -2.5% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason — Value
- Revenue declining -24.4% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now — Growth
- 4 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns — Growth
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- Trend and market structure agree -- coherent bearish picture — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of August 18, 2026
Overall Committee Score
52/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 91%
of 178 Consumer Cyclical peers
Value Analyst
neutral
52
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
− ROE of only -2.5% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason
Growth Analyst
bearish
40
/ 100 · High confidence
Growth story is weak, decelerating, or inconsistent
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
− Revenue declining -24.4% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now
Technical Analyst
neutral
49
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ Weekly trend (downtrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Bollinger bandwidth of 15.8% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
80
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking
News Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2963.04)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 52.1 to 52.1.
Comparing 2026-08-17 to 2026-08-18 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
34.3
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.046
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$11.65
Resistance
$19.29
Bollinger %B
0.26
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$12.61
Below
EMA 21
$12.72
Below
EMA 50
$13.33
Below
EMA 200
$16.73
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
100
Growth
31
Profitability
4
Financial Health
95
Cash Flow
15
Valuation
P/E Ratio
-46.9×
P/B Ratio
1.21×
PEG Ratio
0.38
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$27.10
52W Low
$11.65
Quality & Growth
ROE
150.6%
ROA
70.9%
Gross Margin
1598.6%
Operating Margin
-350.6%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.25
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of -46.9 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 1.2x; PEG ratio of 0.4 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 1.5%; Return on assets of 0.7%; Net margin of -1.7%; Gross margin of 16.0%; Current ratio of 1.88 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.25; Free cash flow per share is negative (-18.25); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 87.7%; 4 consecutive earnings misses; EPS growth accelerating (-160.8% -> +100.0% QoQ); Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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